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Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA

Author

Listed:
  • A. Marsha

    (University of Washington)

  • S. R. Sain

    (The Climate Corp)

  • M. J. Heaton

    (Brigham Young University)

  • A. J. Monaghan

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • O.V. Wilhelmi

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

Extreme heat is a significant public health challenge in urban environments that disproportionally impacts vulnerable members of society. In this research, demographic, economic and climate projections are brought together with a statistical approach linking extreme heat and mortality in Houston, Texas. The sensitivity of heat-related non-accidental mortality to future changes of demographics, income and climate is explored. We compare climate change outcomes associated with two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which describe alternate future scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations. For each RCP, we explore demographic and economic scenarios for two plausible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Our findings suggest that non-accidental mortality in 2061–2080 may increase for all combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios compared to a historical reference period spanning 1991–2010. Notably, increased heat-related non-accidental mortality is associated with changes in the size and age of the population, but the degree of sensitivity is highly uncertain given the breadth of plausible socioeconomic scenarios. Beyond socioeconomic changes, climate change is also important. For each socioeconomic scenario, non-accidental mortality associated with the lower emissions RCP4.5 scenario is projected to be 50 % less than mortality projected under the higher emissions RCP8.5 scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Marsha & S. R. Sain & M. J. Heaton & A. J. Monaghan & O.V. Wilhelmi, 2018. "Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 471-485, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1775-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1775-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Gu, Xinyue & Chen, Pengyu & Fan, Chao, 2024. "Socio-demographic inequalities in the impacts of extreme temperatures on population mobility11This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial or not-for-profit sectors," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Guillaume Rohat & Olga Wilhelmi & Johannes Flacke & Andrew Monaghan & Jing Gao & Martin Maarseveen & Hy Dao, 2021. "Assessing urban heat-related adaptation strategies under multiple futures for a major U.S. city," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Pascal Polonik & Katharine Ricke & Jennifer Burney, 2025. "Estimating the impacts of climate change: reconciling disconnects between physical climate and statistical models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.
    6. W. J. W. Botzen & M. L. Martinius & P. Bröde & M. A. Folkerts & P. Ignjacevic & F. Estrada & C. N. Harmsen & H. A. M. Daanen, 2020. "Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 545-562, September.
    7. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.

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