IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/urbstu/v53y2016i2p338-354.html

Modelling the dynamics of regional employment–population ratios and their commonality

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Dixon

    (University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Australia)

  • Guay Lim

    (University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, Australia)

Abstract

This paper looks at movements over time in regional employment–population ratios, an important and much neglected determinant of regional performance. We utilise data on gross flows into and out of employment and focus on information contained in the transition rates. The paper applies an unobserved components econometric model to a panel of Australian data to identify and explain the evolution of regional employment–population ratios over time. The approach identifies a common (i.e. nationwide) factor while allowing for region-specific effects, including region-specific impacts of the common factor. The contribution of the common factor to changes in regional employment–population ratios ranges between 38% and 80%. Conversely, regional elements explain between 20% and 62% of changes. The findings highlight the importance of adopting explicit regional employment policies as a complement to national policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of regional employment–population ratios and their commonality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(2), pages 338-354, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:53:y:2016:i:2:p:338-354
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098014563030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0042098014563030
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0042098014563030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramey, Garey & Shigeru Fujita, 2006. "The Cyclicality of Job Loss and Hiring," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4nz8p839, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2011. "State and Territory Employment and Unemployment Patterns in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 44(2), pages 196-206, June.
    3. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, January.
    4. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2008. "The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 256-262, May.
    5. Michael W.L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith, 2010. "The Great Recession In The Uk Labour Market: A Transatlantic Perspective," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages 26-37, October.
    6. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2002. "The Relationship Between Regional and National Unemployment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 469-480.
    7. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 397-407, August.
    8. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, January.
    9. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    10. R Martin & P Sunley, 1999. "Unemployment Flow Regimes and Regional Unemployment Disparities," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(3), pages 523-550, March.
    11. Bent Hansen, 1970. "Excess Demand, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(1), pages 1-23.
    12. Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 83-131.
    13. Simon Burgess & Hélène Turon, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 423-448, April.
    14. Robert E. Hall, 2003. "Modern Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 145-150, May.
    15. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
    16. repec:bla:econom:v:58:y:1991:i:231:p:279-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gary L. Hunt, 2006. "Population–Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 205-244, May.
    18. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
    19. Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & John Freebairn, 2014. "Regional Beveridge Curves: A Latent Variable Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 254-269, February.
    20. Thomas de Graaff & Frank G. van Oort & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2012. "Regional Population–Employment Dynamics Across Different Sectors Of The Economy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 60-84, February.
    21. Nicolaas Groenewold & A. J. Hagger, 2003. "Natural-rate Estimates for the Australian States: An SVAR Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 251-263.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dagmara Nikulin & Aneta Sobiechowska‐Ziegert, 2018. "Informal work in Poland – a regional approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 1227-1246, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jennifer C. Smith, 2011. "The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 402-444, May.
    2. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    3. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Zhutova, Anastasia, 2018. "The cyclicality of labor-market flows: A multiple-shock approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 150-172.
    4. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
    5. Régis Barnichon, 2009. "Demand-driven job separation: reconciling search models with the ins and outs of unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William, 2008. "Cyclical movements in unemployment and informality in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4648, The World Bank.
    7. Y. Saks, 2016. "Socio-economic transitions on the labour market : a European benchmarking exercise," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 41-58, December.
    8. Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    9. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    10. Jorge Andr�s Tamayo Casta�o, 2012. "Asimetr�as en la demanda por trabajo en Colombia: el papel del ciclo econ�mico," Borradores de Economia 9286, Banco de la Republica.
    11. G. C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan C. Ours, 2021. "Beyond Okun’s law: output growth and labor market flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1387-1409, March.
    12. Maurizio Baussola & Chiara Mussida, 2014. "Transitions in the Labour Market: Discouragement Effect and Individual Characteristics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 28(2), pages 209-232, June.
    13. Kuo Chun-Hung & Miyamoto Hiroaki, 2019. "Fiscal stimulus and unemployment dynamics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Fontaine, Idriss & Gálvez-Iniesta, Ismael & Gomes, Pedro & Vila-Martin, Diego, 2020. "Labour market flows: Accounting for the public sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Régis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2013. "Declining labor force attachment and downward trends in unemployment and participation," Economics Working Papers 1397, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Nordmeier, Daniela, 2014. "Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-83.
    17. Michele Campolieti, 2011. "The ins and outs of unemployment in Canada, 1976–2008," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1331-1349, November.
    18. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2013. "Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 530-548, May.
    19. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    20. Robert Dixon, 2024. "Unemployment entry, exit and Okun’s law: An analysis with Australian data," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 27(2), pages 161-181.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:53:y:2016:i:2:p:338-354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/urbanstudiesjournal .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.