IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jregsc/v46y2006i2p205-244.html

Population–Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Gary L. Hunt

Abstract

. Population and employment in the 50 United States are found to be non‐stationary and cointegrated. Vector error correction (VEC) models exhibit dynamics with adjustment to shocks essentially completed in 30–35 years. This contrasts with adjustment periods between one and two centuries for non‐stationary models specified in levels. These dynamic adjustment patterns support the hypothesis that relatively long adjustment periods and slow dynamics are probably the spurious results of using non‐stationary levels of population and employment outside of a VEC model framework. Recommendations for modeling the population–employment relationship are offered based on the findings reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary L. Hunt, 2006. "Population–Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 205-244, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:46:y:2006:i:2:p:205-244
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0022-4146.2006.00439.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-4146.2006.00439.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0022-4146.2006.00439.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    2. Shu-hen Chiang, 2018. "Assessing the Merits of the Urban-Led Policy in China: Spread or Backwash Effect?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 529-557, December.
    4. Deller, Steven & Lledo, Victor, 2007. "Amenities and Rural Appalachia Economic Growth," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 107-132, April.
    5. repec:rre:publsh:v:40:y:2010:i:1:p:71-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of regional employment–population ratios and their commonality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(2), pages 338-354, February.
    7. Shu-Hen Chiang, 2014. "The dilemma of "Twin Cities": is the suburban dependence hypothesis applicable?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 149-163, June.
    8. Stilianos Alexiadis & Konstantinos Eleftheriou & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Do Income Disparities dissipate across the US States? Experimenting with a Vector Error Correction Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-165/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Fabian Waltert & Felix Schlaepfer, 2007. "The role of landscape amenities in regional development: a survey of migration, regional economic and hedonic pricing studies," SOI - Working Papers 0710, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    10. Shu‐Hen Chiang, 2012. "The Source of Metropolitan Growth: The Role of Commuting," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 143-166, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Thanoon, Marwan A. & Rashid, Salim, 2003. "Saving dynamics in the Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 827-845, January.
    3. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy: Finland and New Zealand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    6. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    7. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    8. Thomas A. Garrett & Russell M. Rhine, 2007. "Does government spending really crowd out charitable contributions? new time series evidence," Working Papers 2007-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Herzer Dierk, 2005. "Exportdiversifizierung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Chile / Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Chile: Eine ökonometrische Analyse / An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(2), pages 163-180, April.
    10. Putkuri, Hanna, 2010. "Housing loan rate margins in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 10/2010, Bank of Finland.
    11. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    12. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.
    13. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    14. Herzer, Dierk & Klasen, Stephan & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas, 2008. "In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 793-810, September.
    15. Marwan Abdul-Malik Thanoon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Abd. Aziz Abd. Rahman, 2006. "Malaysia: from economic recovery to sustained economic growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 295-315, January.
    16. Sarada, C. & Ravinsankar, T. & Krishnan, M. & Anandanarayanan, C., 2006. "Indian Seafood Exports: Issues of Instability, Commodity Concentration and Geographical Spread," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 1-15.
    17. Kasibhatla, Krishna & Stewart, David & Sen, Swapan & Malindretos, John, 2006. "Are equity market daily price indices and returns in the major european markets european markets cointegrated? Tests and evidence," MPRA Paper 36502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Nobel Prize Committee, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    19. Defne Mutluer & Yasemin Barlas, 2002. "Modeling the Turkish Broad Money Demand," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 55-75.
    20. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:46:y:2006:i:2:p:205-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.