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Population-Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment

  • Gary L. Hunt

Population and employment in the 50 United States are found to be non-stationary and cointegrated. Vector error correction (VEC) models exhibit dynamics with adjustment to shocks essentially completed in "30-35 years". This contrasts with adjustment periods between "one and two centuries" for non-stationary models specified in levels. These dynamic adjustment patterns support the hypothesis that relatively long adjustment periods and slow dynamics are probably the spurious results of using non-stationary levels of population and employment outside of a VEC model framework. Recommendations for modeling the population-employment relationship are offered based on the findings reported. Copyright Blackwell Publishers, 2006

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 46 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 205-244

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:46:y:2006:i:2:p:205-244
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