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How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate

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Abstract

This article estimates how effects of local labor demand shocks on labor market outcomes vary with the initial local unemployment rate, which has not been previously studied. The data are on 23 large U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The article finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in increasing real wages if the local economy initially has low unemployment. However, demand shocks have greater effects in reducing unemployment, and increasing labor force participation, if the local economy initially has high unemployment, although these differences are only of modest statistical significance. The estimates are based on a new econometric approach to determining the correct dynamic structure for how local labor markets respond to demand shocks. This new approach finds that demand shocks have persistent effects on labor force participation and real wages, but not on unemployment, which contradicts some previous research.
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  • Timothy J. Bartik, "undated". "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate," Upjohn Working Papers tjb152, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:tjb152
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    File URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/grow.12101/abstract
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy J. Bartik & Nathan Sotherland, 2019. "Local Job Multipliers in the United States: Variation with Local Characteristics and with High-Tech Shocks," Upjohn Working Papers 19-301, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. Bartik, Timothy J., 2024. "Long-run effects on county employment rates of demand shocks to county and commuting zone employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Andersen, Asbjørn Goul & Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2019. "Local labor demand and participation in social insurance programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Roberta Moraes Rocha & Breno Caldas Araújo, 2021. "Local multiplier effect of the tradable sector on the Brazilian labor market," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 269-286, December.
    5. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.
    6. Hershbein, Brad & Stuart, Bryan A., 2023. "Place-based consequences of person-based transfers: Evidence from recessions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    7. Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    8. Brad J. Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2020. "Recessions and Local Labor Market Hysteresis," Upjohn Working Papers 20-325, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    9. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Using Place-Based Jobs Policies to Help Distressed Communities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 99-127, Summer.
    10. Benjamin Austin & Edward Glaeser & Lawrence Summers, 2018. "Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st-Century America," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 151-255.
    11. Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "The Social Value of Job Loss and Its Effect on the Costs of U.S. Environmental Regulations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 179-197.
    12. Ryan M. Gallagher & Joseph Persky, 2020. "Heterogeneity of birth‐state effects on internal migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 517-537, June.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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