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Exportdiversifizierung und Wirtschaftswachstum in Chile, Eine ökonometrische Analyse

  • Dierk Herzer

    ()

    (Universitaet Goettingen)

Entwicklungsländern wird seit drei Jahrzehnten die Diversifizierung ihrer Exportstruktur empfohlen. Exportdiversifizierung soll nachhaltiges Wachstum ermöglichen und eine Verringerung der wirtschaftlichen Instabilität durch den Abbau wachstumshemmender Einflussfaktoren herbeiführen. Der Zusammenhang zwischen Exportdiversifizierung und Wachstum ist empirisch bis heute jedoch kaum erforscht. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird mit zeitreihenanalytischen Verfahren untersucht, ob die Diversification-led-growth-Hypothese für Chile im Zeitraum von 1962 bis 2001 gerechtfertigt werden kann. Ausgangspunkt der Analyse sind Einheitswurzeltests, die auch bei a priori nicht bekannten Strutkurbrüchen anwendbar sind. Anschließend wird die Technik kointegrierter Prozesse verwendet: Der Test auf Kointegration erfolgt auf Basis der Trace-Statistik des Johansen-Verfahrens. Zusätzlich wird das einstufige Fehlerkorrekturmodell von Stock eingesetzt. Die Evidenz für die Annahme eines langfristigen Zusemmanhangs zwischen dem Grad der Exportdiversifizierung und der Höhe des chilenischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird mit der DOLS-Prozedur überprüft. Es zeigt sich, dass die Exportdiversifizierung einen starken Einfluss auf die chilenische Indlandsproduktion hat. Die Ergebnisse sprechen für die Hypothese, wonach eine Exportdiversifizierung über Learning-by-exporting- und Learning-by-doing- Externalitäten ein wirtschaftliches Wachstum herbeizuführen vermag.

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Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 225 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 163-180

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:225:y:2005:i:2:p:163-180
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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  2. Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, Sheila & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 375-391, April.
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