IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v27y2026i3p354-389.html

Projection Bias in Individual Football Ticket Purchases

Author

Listed:
  • MichaÅ‚ Kowalik
  • Tim Pawlowski

Abstract

By merging fine-grained association football (soccer) ticket data with detailed weather information, we present a novel setting to test projection bias in the field. Since football fans must verify their identity for both ticket purchase and stadium entry, we are able to explore the effect of interest at the individual level. Overall, our findings suggest that intertemporal decision-making by sports consumers is indeed systematically biased. Moreover, we offer some initial evidence in line with the literature on hedonic consumption, since decision-making by women seems to be stronger affected by weather compared to men.

Suggested Citation

  • MichaÅ‚ Kowalik & Tim Pawlowski, 2026. "Projection Bias in Individual Football Ticket Purchases," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 27(3), pages 354-389, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:27:y:2026:i:3:p:354-389
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025261422471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025261422471
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/15270025261422471?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brad Humphreys & Jane Ruseski & Li Zhou, 2015. "Physical Activity, Present Bias, and Habit Formation: Theory and Evidence from Longitudinal Data," Working Papers 2015-06, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    2. Nola Agha & Thomas Rhoads, 2018. "Reputation and the league standing effect: the case of a split season in minor league baseball," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(41), pages 4447-4455, September.
    3. Qi Ge & Brad R. Humphreys & Kun Zhou, 2020. "Are Fair Weather Fans Affected by Weather? Rainfall, Habit Formation, and Live Game Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 304-322, April.
    4. Garon, Jean-Denis & Masse, Alix & Michaud, Pierre-Carl, 2015. "Health club attendance, expectations and self-control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 364-374.
    5. Murray, Kyle B. & Di Muro, Fabrizio & Finn, Adam & Popkowski Leszczyc, Peter, 2010. "The effect of weather on consumer spending," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 512-520.
    6. Buchheim, Lukas & Kolaska, Thomas, 2016. "Weather and the Psychology of Purchasing Outdoor-Movie Tickets," Discussion Papers in Economics 26930, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Dan Acland & Matthew R. Levy, 2015. "Naiveté, Projection Bias, and Habit Formation in Gym Attendance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 146-160, January.
    8. Dominik Schreyer & Daniel Däuper, 2018. "Determinants of spectator no-show behaviour: first empirical evidence from the German Bundesliga," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(21), pages 1475-1480, December.
    9. Michael C. Davis, 2009. "Analyzing the Relationship Between Team Success and MLB Attendance With GARCH Effects," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(1), pages 44-58, February.
    10. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    11. Buraimo, Babatunde & Forrest, David & McHale, Ian G. & Tena, J.D., 2022. "Armchair fans: Modelling audience size for televised football matches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 644-655.
    12. Lukas Buchheim & Thomas Kolaska, 2017. "Weather and the Psychology of Purchasing Outdoor Movie Tickets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3718-3738, November.
    13. Acland, Dan & Levy, Matthew R., 2015. "Naiveté, projection bias, and habit formation in gym attendance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Chenxi Li & Xueming Luo & Cheng Zhang, 2017. "Sunny, Rainy, and Cloudy with a Chance of Mobile Promotion Effectiveness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(5), pages 762-779, September.
    15. Böheim, René & Grübl, Dominik & Lackner, Mario, 2019. "Choking under pressure – Evidence of the causal effect of audience size on performance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 76-93.
    16. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    17. Yanjun Liao, 2020. "Weather and the Decision to Go Solar: Evidence on Costly Cancellations," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33.
    18. Michael Conlin & Ted O'Donoghue & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 2007. "Projection Bias in Catalog Orders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1217-1249, September.
    19. Stefano DellaVigna & Ulrike Malmendier, 2006. "Paying Not to Go to the Gym," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 694-719, June.
    20. Uri Simonsohn, 2010. "Weather To Go To College," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 270-280, March.
    21. Qi Ge & Benjamin Ho, 2019. "Energy Use And Temperature Habituation: Evidence From High Frequency Thermostat Usage Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1196-1214, April.
    22. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
    23. Meghan R. Busse & Devin G. Pope & Jaren C. Pope & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2015. "The Psychological Effect of Weather on Car Purchases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 371-414.
    24. Besters, Lucas M. & van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin A., 2019. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 117-127.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Lamp, 2023. "Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1179-1219, April.
    2. Clot, Sophie & Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette, 2022. "Projection bias in environmental beliefs and behavioural intentions - An application to solar panels and eco-friendly transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Bonan, Jacopo & Cattaneo, Cristina & d’Adda, Giovanna & Tavoni, Massimo, 2024. "Heat of the Moment: How Temperature Influences the Search and Purchase of Energy-Using Appliances," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Bonan, Jacopo & Cattaneo, Cristina & D'Adda, Giovanna & Tavoni, Massimo, 2023. "Daily Temperature and Sales of Energy-using Durables," RFF Working Paper Series 23-43, Resources for the Future.
    5. Katharina Dowling & Daniel Guhl & Daniel Klapper & Martin Spann & Lucas Stich & Narine Yegoryan, 2020. "Behavioral biases in marketing," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 449-477, May.
    6. Tian, Xin & Cao, Shasha & Song, Yan, 2021. "The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Meier, Stephan & Zou, Xin, 2020. "In the mood to consume: Effect of sunshine on credit card spending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Lukas Buchheim & Thomas Kolaska, 2017. "Weather and the Psychology of Purchasing Outdoor Movie Tickets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3718-3738, November.
    9. Dominik Schreyer & Payam Ansari, 2022. "Stadium Attendance Demand Research: A Scoping Review," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 749-788, August.
    10. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, 2021. "Subscription and casual customers’ differential sensitivity to meteorological characteristics," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Haggag, Kareem & Patterson, Richard W. & Pope, Nolan G. & Feudo, Aaron, 2021. "Attribution bias in major decisions: Evidence from the United States Military Academy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Kaufmann, Marc, 2022. "Projection bias in effort choices," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 368-393.
    13. Fang, Ximeng & Singhal, Puja, 2024. "Weather to pay attention to energy efficiency on the housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    14. Pan He & Pengfei Liu & Yueming (Lucy) Qiu & Lufan Liu, 2022. "Author Correction: The weather affects air conditioner purchases to fill the energy efficiency gap," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-1, December.
    15. Benjamin Bushong & Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, 2024. "Failures in Forecasting: An Experiment on Interpersonal Projection Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8735-8752, December.
    16. Jie He & Bing Zhang, 2021. "Current Air Pollution and Willingness to Pay for Better Air Quality: Revisiting the Temporal Reliability of the Contingent Valuation Method," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(1), pages 135-168, May.
    17. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    18. Hu, Jianhao & Zhang, Xuan & Chen, Hanyu(Yuki) & Li, Wanyue, 2024. "When it rains, it pours? The impact of weather on customer returns in the brick-and-mortar retail store," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Jiao, Yawen, 2024. "Managing decision fatigue: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1).
    20. Diarmaid Ó Ceallaigh & Kirsten I.M. Rohde & Hans van Kippersluis, 2024. "Skipping your workout, again? Measuring and understanding time inconsistency in physical activity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-028/V, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:27:y:2026:i:3:p:354-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.