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Weather and the Psychology of Purchasing Outdoor-Movie Tickets

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  • Buchheim, Lukas
  • Kolaska, Thomas

Abstract

The consequences of many economic decisions only materialize in the future. To make informed choices in such decision problems, consumers need to anticipate the likelihood of future states of the world, the state-dependence of their preferences, and the choice alternatives that may become relevant. This complex task may expose consumers to psychological biases like extrapolative expectations, projection bias, or salience. We test whether customers are affected by such biases when they buy advance tickets for an outdoor movie theater, a real-world situation that, due to the availability of reliable weather forecasts, closely resembles a stylized decision problem under risk. We find that customers’ decisions are heavily influenced by the weather at the time of purchase, even though the latter is irrelevant for the experience of visiting the theater in the future. The empirical evidence cannot be fully explained by a range of candidate rational explanations, but is consistent with the presence of the aforementioned psychological mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchheim, Lukas & Kolaska, Thomas, 2016. "Weather and the Psychology of Purchasing Outdoor-Movie Tickets," Discussion Papers in Economics 26930, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:26930
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michel, Christian & Stenzel, André, 2021. "Model-based evaluation of cooling-off policies," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 270-293.
    3. Kaufmann, Marc, 2022. "Projection bias in effort choices," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 368-393.
    4. He, Xiaobo & Luo, Zijun & Zhang, Junjie, 2022. "The impact of air pollution on movie theater admissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Tobias Schlager & Emanuel de Bellis & JoAndrea Hoegg, 2020. "How and when weather boosts consumer product valuation," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 695-711, July.
    6. Clot, Sophie & Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette, 2022. "Projection bias in environmental beliefs and behavioural intentions - An application to solar panels and eco-friendly transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Sebastian Krugel & Matthias Uhl, 2021. "The Behavioral Economics of Intrapersonal Conflict: A Critical Assessment," Papers 2101.12526, arXiv.org.
    8. Badorf, Florian & Hoberg, Kai, 2020. "The impact of daily weather on retail sales: An empirical study in brick-and-mortar stores," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, 2021. "Subscription and casual customers’ differential sensitivity to meteorological characteristics," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Tian, Xin & Cao, Shasha & Song, Yan, 2021. "The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Hongyong Fu & Jiawen Li & Yujie Li & Shengzhong Huang & Xiangkai Sun, 2018. "Risk Transfer Mechanism for Agricultural Products Supply Chain Based on Weather Index Insurance," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-17, August.
    12. Jie He & Bing Zhang, 2021. "Current Air Pollution and Willingness to Pay for Better Air Quality: Revisiting the Temporal Reliability of the Contingent Valuation Method," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(1), pages 135-168, May.
    13. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Meier, Stephan & Zou, Xin, 2020. "In the mood to consume: Effect of sunshine on credit card spending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Projection Bias; Salience; Extrapolative Expectations; Behavioral Economics; Consumer Behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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