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Fading Shooting Stars—The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer

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  • Lukas Tohoff
  • Mario Mechtel

Abstract

This article analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer. We hypothesize that, to get selected by elite youth academies, players with relative age disadvantages must be relatively more talented; especially at the margin of getting selected. Using data on 2,383 former elite youth players and their later market values, we show that the RAE was substantial in German elite youth soccer between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, in the sample of former elite youth academy players, those with relative age disadvantages reach significantly higher market values. Our results indicate that relative age disadvantages of elite academy players are positively correlated with their unobserved ability; suggesting that, on average, the RAE results in a loss of talent—and market value. We find that clubs could generate 30.6 to 72.8% higher market values without the RAE.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Tohoff & Mario Mechtel, 2025. "Fading Shooting Stars—The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(5), pages 499-542, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:5:p:499-542
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025251320958
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    relative age effect in elite youth soccer; selection; market values; unobserved ability; misallocation of talent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • Z22 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Labor Issues
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • M53 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Training
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations

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