IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lue/wpaper/413.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fading Shooting Stars – The Relative Age Effect, Misallocation of Talent, and Returns to Training in German Elite Youth Soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Lukas Tohoff

    (Bocconi University, Economics and Social Sciences)

  • Mario Mechtel

    (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre)

Abstract

This paper analyses the Relative Age Effect (RAE) in German elite youth soccer academies. We examine the efficiency of talent selection and the returns to training. Our results indicate a strong effect of players’ birth dates on their probability of getting selected – and, thus, a waste of talent. Using data on 2,382 former elite youth players and their later market values, we find that clubs could generate 30.3 to 77.2% higher market values when eliminating the RAE. Our findings emphasize that distinguishing between current and potential performance levels is crucial for the efficient allocation of talent in sports and society

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Tohoff & Mario Mechtel, 2022. "Fading Shooting Stars – The Relative Age Effect, Misallocation of Talent, and Returns to Training in German Elite Youth Soccer," Working Paper Series in Economics 413, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.leuphana.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Forschungseinrichtungen/ifvwl/WorkingPapers/lue/pdf/wp_413_Upload.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Heckman & Flavio Cunha, 2007. "The Technology of Skill Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 31-47, May.
    2. Johannes Berger & Petra Nieken, 2016. "Heterogeneous Contestants and the Intensity of Tournaments," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(7), pages 631-660, October.
    3. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    4. Peeters, Thomas, 2018. "Testing the Wisdom of Crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 17-29.
    5. Benito Perez-Gonzalez & Alvaro Fernandez-Luna & Daniel Castillo & Pablo Burillo, 2020. "Are European Soccer Players Worth More If They Are Born Early in the Year? Relative Age Effect on Player Market Value," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-10, May.
    6. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    7. Herm, Steffen & Callsen-Bracker, Hans-Markus & Kreis, Henning, 2014. "When the crowd evaluates soccer players’ market values: Accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 484-492.
    8. Steffen Herm & Hans-Markus Callsen-Bracker & Henning Kreis, 2014. "When the crowd evaluates soccer players’ market values: Accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 484-492, October.
    9. Müller, Oliver & Simons, Alexander & Weinmann, Markus, 2017. "Beyond crowd judgments: Data-driven estimation of market value in association football," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 611-624.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Di Domizio & Raul Caruso & Bernd Frick, 2020. "Intelligenza Collettiva E Valore Di Mercato Dei Calciatori: Il Caso Transfermarkt," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 16(2), pages 155-172, novembre.
    2. Maribel Serna Rodríguez & Andrés Ramírez Hassan & Alexander Coad, 2019. "Uncovering Value Drivers of High Performance Soccer Players," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 819-849, August.
    3. Jose Luis Felipe & Alvaro Fernandez-Luna & Pablo Burillo & Luis Eduardo de la Riva & Javier Sanchez-Sanchez & Jorge Garcia-Unanue, 2020. "Money Talks: Team Variables and Player Positions that Most Influence the Market Value of Professional Male Footballers in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-8, May.
    4. Ackermann, Phil & Follert, Florian, 2018. "Einige bewertungstheoretische Anmerkungen zur Marktwertanalyse der Plattform transfermarkt.de," Working Papers of the European Institute for Socioeconomics 23, European Institute for Socioeconomics (EIS), Saarbrücken.
    5. Coates, Dennis & Parshakov, Petr, 2022. "The wisdom of crowds and transfer market values," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 523-534.
    6. Benito Perez-Gonzalez & Alvaro Fernandez-Luna & Daniel Castillo & Pablo Burillo, 2020. "Are European Soccer Players Worth More If They Are Born Early in the Year? Relative Age Effect on Player Market Value," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-10, May.
    7. Jorge Tovar, 2020. "Performance, Diversity And National Identity Evidence From Association Football," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 897-916, April.
    8. Martin Užík & Roman Warias & Jozef Glova, 2022. "Management of Transfer Prices in Professional Football as a Function of Fan Numbers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-13, August.
    9. Frenger, Monika & Emrich, Eike & Geber, Sebastian & Follert, Florian & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "The influence of performance parameters on market value," Working Papers of the European Institute for Socioeconomics 30, European Institute for Socioeconomics (EIS), Saarbrücken.
    10. Havran, Zsolt & Claro, Dániel, 2022. "A 2018-as labdarúgó-világbajnokság hatása a részt vevő labdarúgók értékére [The impact of the 2018 World Cup on the value of participating football players]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1555-1576.
    11. Tommy Quansah & Bernd Frick & Markus Lang & Kieran Maguire, 2021. "The Importance of Club Revenues for Player Salaries and Transfer Expenses—How Does the Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) Impact the English Premier League?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Hackinger, Julian, 2019. "Ignoring millions of Euros: Transfer fees and sunk costs in professional football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    13. Lukas Richau & Florian Follert & Monika Frenger & Eike Emrich, 2021. "The sky is the limit?! Evaluating the existence of a speculative bubble in European football," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(6), pages 765-796, August.
    14. Richau, Lukas & Follert, Florian & Frenger, Monika & Emrich, Eike, 2021. "The Rainmaker?! The impact of investors on transfer fees in the English Premier League," Working Paper 187/2021, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    15. Miquel Carreras-Simó & Jaume García, 2022. "Offensive/Defensive Talent and Sporting Success in Football: Evidence From the Big Five European Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 251-276, April.
    16. Philippe Meier & Raphael Flepp & Maximilian Ruedisser & Egon Franck, 2020. "The Advantage of Scoring Just Before the Half-Time Break—Pure Myth? Quasi-Experimental Evidence From European Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 548-565, June.
    17. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2017. "Correlation, Consumption, Confusion, or Constraints: Why Do Poor Children Perform so Poorly?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(1), pages 102-147, January.
    18. Heckman, James J. & Loughlin, Colleen P., 2021. "Are Student-Athletes Exploited?," IZA Discussion Papers 14857, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Tahir Andrabi & Jishnu Das & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Tristan Zajonc, 2011. "Do Value-Added Estimates Add Value? Accounting for Learning Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-54, July.
    20. Johannes Abeler & Armin Falk & Fabian Kosse, 2021. "Malleability of Preferences for Honesty," CESifo Working Paper Series 9033, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Relative age effect; market values; misallocation of talent; returns to training; selection of talent; elite youth soccer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • Z22 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Labor Issues
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • M53 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Training
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://leuphana.de/institute/ivwl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Wagner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://leuphana.de/institute/ivwl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.