IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v26y2025i3p240-267.html

Suspense and Surprise: The Role of Bookmakers’ Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Abinzano
  • Harold Bonilla
  • Luis Muga

Abstract

Uncertainty in a competition's final result can affect the event's demand via suspense and surprise. Based on a sample of more than 50,000 professional tennis matches, this paper shows how information from bookmaker prices, implied probabilities, and price spreads contain relevant information that explains the uncertainty in the final results of the matches. There is a negative relation between the implied probability for the favorite and the different measures of match result uncertainty proposed and a positive relationship between the spread and these measures when the bookmaker sets prices based on information. This second relation disappears when the bookmaker sets prices based on betting volumes. The results have potential implications both for organizers in scheduling matches with higher levels of uncertainty and for punters in setting strategies that predict the exact result of a match.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Abinzano & Harold Bonilla & Luis Muga, 2025. "Suspense and Surprise: The Role of Bookmakers’ Spreads," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 240-267, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:3:p:240-267
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025241289406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025241289406
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/15270025241289406?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
    2. Bizzozero, Paolo & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2016. "The importance of suspense and surprise in entertainment demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 47-63.
    3. Isabel Artero & Eduardo Bandrés, 2018. "The Broadcasting Demand for the Spanish National Soccer Team," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 934-959, October.
    4. David Forrest & Ian Mchale, 2007. "Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 751-768.
    5. Arne Feddersen & Armin Rott, 2011. "Determinants of Demand for Televised Live Football: Features of the German National Football Team," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 352-369, June.
    6. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James, 2019. "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1073-1081.
    7. Jiř� Lahvička, 2014. "What causes the favourite-longshot bias? Further evidence from tennis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 90-92, January.
    8. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2016. "Game, set and match: the favourite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 605-608, May.
    9. Fischer, Kai & Haucap, Justus, 2020. "Betting market efficiency in the presence of unfamiliar shocks: The case of ghost games during the COVID-19 pandemic," DICE Discussion Papers 349, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    10. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
    11. Jeffrey Ely & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2015. "Suspense and Surprise," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 215-260.
    12. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2018. "Forecasting With Social Media: Evidence From Tweets On Soccer Matches," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1748-1763, July.
    13. Yu Chuan Huang, 2004. "The components of bid‐ask spread and their determinants: TAIFEX versus SGX‐DT," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 835-860, September.
    14. Helmut Dietl & Cornel Nesseler, 2017. "Momentum in tennis: Controlling the match," Working Papers 365, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    15. Babatunde Buraimo & Rob Simmons, 2015. "Uncertainty of Outcome or Star Quality? Television Audience Demand for English Premier League Football," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 449-469, November.
    16. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
    17. Peeters, Thomas, 2018. "Testing the Wisdom of Crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 17-29.
    18. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
    19. Nader Chmait & Sam Robertson & Hans Westerbeek & Rochelle Eime & Carmine Sellitto & Machar Reid, 2020. "Tennis superstars: The relationship between star status and demand for tickets," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 330-347, April.
    20. Julio del Corral, 2009. "Competitive Balance and Match Uncertainty in Grand-Slam Tennis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(6), pages 563-581, December.
    21. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    22. Joxe Maria Barrutiabengoa & Pilar Corredor & Luis Muga, 2022. "Does The Betting Industry Price Gender? Evidence from Professional Tennis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 881-906, October.
    23. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
    24. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
    25. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2017. "Behavioral Biases Never Walk Alone," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 99-125, February.
    26. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Ian G. McHale & J.D. Tena, 2020. "Unscripted Drama: Soccer Audience Response To Suspense, Surprise, And Shock," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 881-896, April.
    27. Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio & J. James Reade, 2022. "Does certainty on the winner diminish the interest in sport competitions? The case of formula one," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 1059-1079, August.
    28. Štefan Lyócsa & Igor Fedorko, 2016. "What drives intermediation costs? A case of tennis betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(22), pages 2037-2053, May.
    29. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2017. "Sentiment Bias And Asset Prices: Evidence From Sports Betting Markets And Social Media," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1119-1129, April.
    30. Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.
    31. Chmait, Nader & Robertson, Sam & Westerbeek, Hans & Eime, Rochelle & Sellitto, Carmine & Reid, Machar, 2020. "Tennis superstars: The relationship between star status and demand for tickets," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 330-347.
    32. Štefan Lyócsa & Tomáš Výrost, 2018. "To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(20), pages 2251-2272, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 105-114.
    2. Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.
    3. Selçuk Özaydın & Thomas Könecke, 2024. "Match-Level Uncertainty in Professional Tennis Revisited—A Novel Approach Applied for the Time Between 2010 and 2019," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(4), pages 507-532, May.
    4. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    5. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2019. "Hidden Power of Trading Activity: The FLB in Tennis Betting Exchanges," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(2), pages 261-285, February.
    6. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
    7. Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Devriesere, Karel & Csató, László & Goossens, Dries, 2025. "Tournament design: A review from an operational research perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 1-21.
    9. Daam Van Reeth & Nikita Osokin, 2020. "The Impact of Hosting the 2018 FIFA World Cup on Differences in TV Viewership Between Seasoned Football Fans and Occasional Watchers of Football Games in Russia," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 256-280, April.
    10. Dominik Schreyer & Benno Torgler, 2018. "On the Role of Race Outcome Uncertainty in the TV Demand for Formula 1 Grands Prix," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 211-229, February.
    11. Uribe, Rodrigo & Buzeta, Cristian & Manzur, Enrique & Alvarez, Isabel, 2021. "Determinants of football TV audience: The straight and ancillary effects of the presence of the local team on the FIFA world cup," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 454-463.
    12. Merz, Oliver & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2021. "Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail: Are people affected by uninformative racehorse names?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    14. Kai Fischer & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2025. "Pricing in response to new information: The case of betting markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(1), pages 236-264, January.
    15. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    16. Kunz-Kaltenhäuser, Philipp, 2023. "Sports teams' home market size in the digital age: Analyzing social media drawing power," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 175, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    17. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
    18. Schreyer & Torgler Benno & Schmidt Sascha L., 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    19. Raphael Flepp & Tim Pawlowski & Travis Richardson, 2025. "Suspense and Surprise in European Football," Papers 2506.21253, arXiv.org.
    20. Singleton, Carl & Reade, J. James & Brown, Alasdair, 2020. "Going with your gut: The (In)accuracy of forecast revisions in a football score prediction game," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:3:p:240-267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.