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Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

  • Ivan Savin

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen)

  • Peter Winker

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen)

For the private and public sector in any particular country it is crucial to know, which industries may exhibit comparative advantages, that for some reasons are not realized. This can efficiently help all current and potential actors to improve their economic strategy both at the micro- and macroeconomic level. In this paper we propose an approach of forecasting comparative advantages dynamics in foreign trade. The instrument is based on relative price differences and is efficient for countries in the process of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries confirms a good performance in the sense of predictive power of this instrument. On the example of Russia, experiencing a period of economic liberalization and with the prospect to join the WTO agreements, we demonstrate which sectors are most likely to contain comparative advantages in the near future.

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Article provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 111-138

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Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:111-138
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