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Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

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  • Ivan Savin

    (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen)

  • Peter Winker

    (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen)

Abstract

For the private and public sector in any particular country it is crucial to know, which industries may exhibit comparative advantages, that for some reasons are not realized. This can efficiently help all current and potential actors to improve their economic strategy both at the micro- and macroeconomic level. In this paper we propose an approach of forecasting comparative advantages dynamics in foreign trade. The instrument is based on relative price differences and is efficient for countries in the process of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries confirms a good performance in the sense of predictive power of this instrument. On the example of Russia, experiencing a period of economic liberalization and with the prospect to join the WTO agreements, we demonstrate which sectors are most likely to contain comparative advantages in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2009. "Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(2), pages 111-138, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:111-138
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    Cited by:

    1. Jürgen Meckl & Ivan Savin, 2018. "Factor-Biased Technical Change and Specialization Patterns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(2), pages 75-100, June.
    2. Natalia Ishchukova & Luboš Smutka, 2013. "Revealed comparative advantage of Russian agricultural exports," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 941-952.
    3. Ishchukova, N. & Smutka, L., 2013. "Comparative Advantage: Products Mapping of the Russian Agricultural Exports," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(3), pages 1-12, September.
    4. Andrey Pushkarev & Natalia Davidson & Oleg Mariev & Nikita Luft, 0000. "Specialization of Russia in international trade: development in the changing international environment," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413244, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Svatoš, M. & Smutka, L. & Ishchukova, N. & Vasilyonok, V., 2014. "Russian Agrarian Foreign Trade Development – the Impact of Selected Factors," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    6. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2012. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection: Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 337-363, April.
    7. Zeynep KAPLAN & Feride DOÐANER GÖNEL, 2018. "Non-oil trade of Turkey and Russia in the Middle East: Trends and potential," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 42-58, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    comparative advantage; economy in transition; Balassa index; Lafay index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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