Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession
This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to \high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our “prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marconi, Daniela & Rolli, Valeria, 2008.
"Comparative Advantage Patterns and Domestic Determinants in Emerging Countries: An Analysis with a Focus on Technology,"
Working Paper Series
RP2008/81, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Daniela Marconi & Valeria Rolli, 2007. "Comparative advantage patterns and domestic determinants in emerging countries: an analysis with a focus on technology," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 638, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Ashok Deo Bardhan & Cynthia Kroll, 2006. "Competitiveness and an Emerging Sector: The Russian Software Industry and its Global Linkages," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 69-95.
- Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004.
"Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fabio Montobbio, 2003. "Sectoral patterns of technological activity and export market share dynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 523-545, July.
- Andrea Zaghini, 2005.
"Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
568, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 629-658, October.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977.
"Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
- R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Antonis Adam & James McHugh & Theodora Kosma, 2003. "Trade Liberalization Strategies; What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From Cefta and Bfta?," IMF Working Papers 03/239, International Monetary Fund.
- Landesmann, Michael A. & Stehrer, Robert, 2001. "Convergence patterns and switchovers in comparative advantage," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-423, December.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
- Balk, Bert M., 1983. "Does there exist a relation between inflation and relative price-change variability? : The effect of the aggregation level," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 173-180.
- Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Tarr, David, 2007. "The structure of import tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4265, The World Bank.
- Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
- Paul R. Krugman & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1987. "The problem of U.S. competitiveness in manufacturing," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 18-29.
- Robert Stehrer & Julia Wörz, 2003.
"Technological convergence and trade patterns,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 191-219, June.
- Eckhard Siggel, 2006. "International Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: A Survey and a Proposal for Measurement," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, June.
- Paul Brenton & Natalia Tourdyeva & John Whalley, 1997. "The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 205-225, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernd Hayo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.