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Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

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  • Ivan Savin

    (Justus-Liebig University Gießen)

  • Peter Winker

    (Justus-Liebig University Gießen)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach of forecasting “prospective" comparative advantages based on relative prices differences between countries in the context of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries that have already passed the transition period from specialization mainly in natural resource- and labor-intensive goods to \high-tech" goods confirms a significant influence of our “prospective" advantages on comparative advantages dynamics. Using this method we identify a set of industries in Russia that seem to be most promising for formation of comparative advantages in the context of its economic liberalization and joining the WTO agreements. These industries include high and medium technological industries like machinery building, pharmaceutical products, railway transport, electronic and medical equipment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2009. "Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200914, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200914
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    Cited by:

    1. Jürgen Meckl & Ivan Savin, 2018. "Factor-Biased Technical Change and Specialization Patterns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(2), pages 75-100, June.
    2. Svatoš, M. & Smutka, L. & Ishchukova, N. & Vasilyonok, V., 2014. "Russian Agrarian Foreign Trade Development – the Impact of Selected Factors," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2012. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection: Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 337-363, April.
    4. Natalia Ishchukova & Luboš Smutka, 2013. "Revealed comparative advantage of Russian agricultural exports," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 941-952.
    5. Ishchukova, N. & Smutka, L., 2013. "Comparative Advantage: Products Mapping of the Russian Agricultural Exports," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(3), pages 1-12, September.
    6. Zeynep KAPLAN & Feride DOÐANER GÖNEL, 2018. "Non-oil trade of Turkey and Russia in the Middle East: Trends and potential," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 42-58, March.
    7. Miroslav SVATOŠ & Luboš SMUTKA & Natalia ISHCHUKOVA, 2014. "The position of agriculture in the Russian Federation - the last two decades development overview," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(11), pages 489-502.
    8. Andrey Pushkarev & Natalia Davidson & Oleg Mariev & Nikita Luft, 0000. "Specialization of Russia in international trade: development in the changing international environment," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413244, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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