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Rollover Risk and Credit Spreads: Evidence from International Corporate Bonds

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  • Patricio Valenzuela

Abstract

Using a new dataset on corporate bonds placed in international markets by emerging and developed borrowers, this article demonstrates that a high proportion of short-term debt exacerbates the effect of debt market illiquidity on corporate bond spreads. This effect is present during both periods of financial stability and of financial distress, and it is smaller in the banking sector than in other sectors. The article’s major finding is robust when controlling for potential endogeneity. Moreover, the results are consistent with the predictions of structural credit risk models that argue that a higher proportion of short-term debt increases a firm’s exposure to debt market illiquidity through a "rollover risk" channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio Valenzuela, 2016. "Rollover Risk and Credit Spreads: Evidence from International Corporate Bonds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 631-661.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:631-661.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfv022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Carlos Gozzi & Ross Levine & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2012. "How Firms Use Domestic and International Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 17763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
    4. Hausmann Ricardo & Panizza Ugo, 2011. "Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter Cyclical Policies in the New Millennium," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-35, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Zhiqian & Xu, Yue & Fang, Mei & Tang, Ziling & Tao, Chunhua, 2023. "How does the bond market price corporate ESG engagement? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1406-1423.
    2. Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien, 2019. "Effect of short-term debt on default risk: Evidence from Pacific Basin countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Wu‐Lung Li & Kenneth Zheng, 2020. "Rollover risk and managerial cost adjustment decisions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2843-2878, September.
    4. Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2017. "Effect of rollover risk on default risk: Evidence from bank financing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 130-143.
    5. Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien & King, Tao-Hsien Dolly, 2020. "Debt maturity and the cost of bank loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Choi, Jaewon & Dasgupta, Amil & Oh, Ji, 2022. "Bond funds and credit risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118856, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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