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Effect of rollover risk on default risk: Evidence from bank financing

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  • Wang, Chih-Wei
  • Chiu, Wan-Chien
  • Peña, Juan Ignacio

Abstract

We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013. Dependence on bank financing is the key driver of the impact of rollover risk on default risk. Default risk and rollover risk present a significant positive relation in firms dependent on bank financing. In contrast, rollover risk is uncorrelated with default probability in the case of firms that do not rely on bank financing. Our measure of rollover risk is the amount of long-term debt maturing in one year, weighted by total assets. In the case of a firm that depends on bank financing, an increase of one standard deviation in this measure leads to a significant increase of 3.2% in its default probability within one year. Other drivers affecting the interaction between rollover risk and default risk are whether a firm suffers from declining profitability and has poor credit. Additionally, rollover risk's impact on default probability is stronger during periods when credit market conditions are tighter.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2017. "Effect of rollover risk on default risk: Evidence from bank financing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 130-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.009
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    Cited by:

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    6. Oleg Sokolinskiy & Benjamin Melamed & Ben Sopranzetti, 2018. "Precautionary replenishment in financially-constrained inventory systems subject to credit rollover risk and supply disruption," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 971-997, December.
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    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Wen-Ling, 2023. "The impact of central bank digital currency variation on firm's implied volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rollover risk; Default risk; Debt maturity; Bank dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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