IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v54y2017icp130-143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of rollover risk on default risk: Evidence from bank financing

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Chih-Wei
  • Chiu, Wan-Chien
  • Peña, Juan Ignacio

Abstract

We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013. Dependence on bank financing is the key driver of the impact of rollover risk on default risk. Default risk and rollover risk present a significant positive relation in firms dependent on bank financing. In contrast, rollover risk is uncorrelated with default probability in the case of firms that do not rely on bank financing. Our measure of rollover risk is the amount of long-term debt maturing in one year, weighted by total assets. In the case of a firm that depends on bank financing, an increase of one standard deviation in this measure leads to a significant increase of 3.2% in its default probability within one year. Other drivers affecting the interaction between rollover risk and default risk are whether a firm suffers from declining profitability and has poor credit. Additionally, rollover risk's impact on default probability is stronger during periods when credit market conditions are tighter.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2017. "Effect of rollover risk on default risk: Evidence from bank financing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 130-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521916301326
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    2. Lemmon, Michael L. & Zender, Jaime F., 2010. "Debt Capacity and Tests of Capital Structure Theories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1161-1187, October.
    3. Hui Chen & Yu Xu & Jun Yang, 2012. "Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," NBER Working Papers 18367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Bennett, Rosalind L. & Güntay, Levent & Unal, Haluk, 2015. "Inside debt, bank default risk, and performance during the crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 487-513.
    7. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    8. Evan Gatev & Til Schuermann & Philip E. Strahan, 2009. "Managing Bank Liquidity Risk: How Deposit-Loan Synergies Vary with Market Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 995-1020, March.
    9. Chava, Sudheer & Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2011. "The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 116-135, January.
    10. Mark S. Carey & Stephen D. Prowse & John Rea & Gregory F. Udell, 1993. "The economics of the private placement market," Staff Studies 166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    12. Patricio Valenzuela, 2016. "Rollover Risk and Credit Spreads: Evidence from International Corporate Bonds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 631-661.
    13. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    14. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
    15. Flannery, Mark J, 1986. "Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 19-37, March.
    16. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    17. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jarrad Harford & Sandy Klasa & William F. Maxwell, 2014. "Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 975-1012, June.
    20. Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo & Laranjeira, Bruno & Weisbenner, Scott, 2012. "Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Effects of the 2007 Credit Crisis," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 3-58, January.
    21. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    22. Gopalan, Radhakrishnan & Song, Fenghua & Yerramilli, Vijay, 2014. "Debt Maturity Structure and Credit Quality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 817-842, August.
    23. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    24. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    25. João A. C. Santos & Andrew Winton, 2008. "Bank Loans, Bonds, and Information Monopolies across the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1315-1359, June.
    26. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    27. Armen Hovakimian & Ayla Kayhan & Sheridan Titman, 2012. "Are Corporate Default Probabilities Consistent with the Static Trade-off Theory?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 315-340.
    28. Barclay, Michael J & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1995. "The Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 609-631, June.
    29. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iwaki, Hiromichi & Saito, Junyu, 2022. "Does rollover risk matter to payout policies? Evidence from Japanese listed firms," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien & King, Tao-Hsien Dolly, 2020. "Debt maturity and the cost of bank loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Khoo, Joye & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian, 2022. "Managerial ability and debt maturity," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1).
    4. Oleg Sokolinskiy & Benjamin Melamed & Ben Sopranzetti, 2018. "Precautionary replenishment in financially-constrained inventory systems subject to credit rollover risk and supply disruption," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 971-997, December.
    5. Wang, Yushi & Feng, Yuan & Zhu, Zhangyao & Liu, Jia & Li, Yubin, 2024. "Financial statement comparability and expected default risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Wu, Yu-Ching, 2023. "CEO inside debt and downside risk: Evidence from internal and external environments," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Shang, Chenguang, 2021. "Dare to play with fire? Managerial ability and the use of short-term debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Palmieri, Egidio & Ferilli, Greta Benedetta & Altunbas, Yener & Stefanelli, Valeria & Geretto, Enrico Fioravante, 2024. "Business model and ESG pillars: The impacts on banking default risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Wen-Ling, 2023. "The impact of central bank digital currency variation on firm's implied volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien, 2019. "Effect of short-term debt on default risk: Evidence from Pacific Basin countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Gao, Ning & Jiang, Wei & Jin, Jiaxu, 2023. "Disproportional control rights and debt maturity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Shang, Chenguang, 2021. "Dare to play with fire? Managerial ability and the use of short-term debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Zhiguo He, 2014. "A Theory of Debt Maturity: The Long and Short of Debt Overhang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 719-762, April.
    5. Atawnah, Nader & Zaman, Rashid & Liu, Jia & Atawna, Thaer & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Does foreign competition affect corporate debt maturity structure? Evidence from import penetration," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Chengru Hu & Wei Jiang, 2019. "Managerial risk incentives and accounting conservatism," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 781-813, April.
    7. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    8. Viral Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2012. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3572-3609.
    9. Zhou Lu & Zhuyao Zhuo, 2021. "Modelling of Chinese corporate bond default – A machine learning approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 6147-6191, December.
    10. Botsch, Matthew & Vanasco, Victoria, 2019. "Learning by lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Khoo, Joye & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian, 2022. "Managerial ability and debt maturity," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1).
    12. Dang, Viet A. & Phan, Hieu V., 2016. "CEO inside debt and corporate debt maturity structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 38-54.
    13. Ming Fang & Rui Zhong, 2004. "Default Risk, Firm's Characteristics, and Risk Shifting," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2461, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    14. Wang, Chih-Wei & Chiu, Wan-Chien & King, Tao-Hsien Dolly, 2020. "Debt maturity and the cost of bank loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Ming Fang & Rui Zhong, 2004. "Default Risk, Firm's Characteristics, and Risk Shifting," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2461, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    16. Inder K. Khurana & Changjiang Wang, 2015. "Debt Maturity Structure and Accounting Conservatism," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1-2), pages 167-203, January.
    17. Dung T. T. Tran & Hieu V. Phan, 2022. "Government economic policy uncertainty and corporate debt contracting," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 169-199, March.
    18. Ivan E. Brick & Rose C. Liao, 2017. "The joint determinants of cash holdings and debt maturity: the case for financial constraints," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 597-641, April.
    19. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    20. Wu, Julia Yonghua & Opare, Solomon & Bhuiyan, Md. Borhan Uddin & Habib, Ahsan, 2022. "Determinants and consequences of debt maturity structure: A systematic review of the international literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rollover risk; Default risk; Debt maturity; Bank dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.