The Impact of EU Enlargement in 2004 and 2007 on FDI and Migration Flows Gravity Analysis of Factor Mobility
This paper contributes to the ex post assessment of macroeconomic effects triggered by the 2004 and 2007 wave of EU enlargement, with a specific focus on factor trade, i.e. the crossborder mobility of labor and capital. While most of the potential for trade in goods and for foreign direct investment (FDI) was tapped ahead of actual enlargement, above all migration effects are spread out over a longer period, given transition arrangements for labor market integration. We use (innovative) gravity models to establish the potential for factor trade and crosscheck the results against recent developments. Our key finding is the uneven development of capital and labor mobility since EU enlargement. While migration potentials are materializing as expected, FDI stocks have remained relatively stable at already high levels. Furthermore, we observe a nonlinear relationship between migration and per capita income that may be explained on theoretical grounds and attributed to institutional factors. While the highest-income countries (above all Slovenia and the Czech Republic) are already turning into immigration countries, the low-income countries and those last to join the EU (Bulgaria and Romania) are likely to see further emigration and more FDI inflows.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ferragina, Anna Maria & Giovannetti, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2005.
"A Tale of Parallel Integration Processes. A Gravity Analysis of EU Trade with Mediterranean and Central and Eastern European Countries,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1829, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pastore Francesco & Ferragina Anna Maria & Giovannetti Giorgia, 2009. "A Tale of Parallel Integration Processes: A Gravity Analysis of EU Trade with Mediterranean and Central and Eastern European Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 21-44, September.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasily Astrov & Zlatko Bosnic & Vladimir Gligorov & Peter Havlik & Mario Holzner & Gabor Hunya & Michael Landesmann & Zdenek Lukas & Anton Mihailov & Leon Podkaminer & Sandor Richter & Waltraut Urban , 2007. "High Growth Continues, with Risks of Overheating on the Horizon," wiiw Research Reports 341, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2008. "Global Migration and the World Economy: Two Centuries of Policy and Performance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582775, March.
- Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003.
"Structural Funds, EU Enlargement, and the Redistribution of FDI in Europe,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2010. "Structural funds, EU enlargement, and the redistribution of FDI in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 469-494, September.
- Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost & Helena Marques, 2006. "A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path-dependency in Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1077-1089, 08.
- Katarzyna Budnik, 2007. "Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 44, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Eller, Markus & Haiss, Peter & Steiner, Katharina, 2006. "Foreign direct investment in the financial sector and economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe: The crucial role of the efficiency channel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 300-319, December.
- Dana Hajkova & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Laura Vartia & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2006. "Taxation, Business Environment and FDI Location in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 502, OECD Publishing.
- Markusen, James R., 1983. "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 341-356, May.
- James R. Markusen, 1995. "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 169-189, Spring.
- Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2005.
"Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model,"
105, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Trade integration of Central and Eastern European countries: lessons from a gravity model," Working Paper Series 0545, European Central Bank.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2006.
"Shifts in Economic Geography and their Causes,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0767, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2006. "Shifts in economic geography and their causes," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 15-39.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2006. "Shifts in economic geography and their causes," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 61-85.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2006. "Shifts in Economic Geography and their Causes," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 218, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2006. "Shifts in economic geography and their causes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19774, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Bruce Blonigen, 2005.
"A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants,"
Atlantic Economic Journal,
Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
- Bruce A. Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," NBER Working Papers 11299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Konrad Lammers, 2004. "How will the enlargement affect the old members of the European Union?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 39(3), pages 132-141, May.
- Peter Egger, 2005. "Alternative Techniques for Estimation of Cross-Section Gravity Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 881-891, November.
- Ali Mansoor & Bryce Quillin, 2007. "Migration and Remittances : Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6920, June.
- Hans-Peter Lankes & A. J. Venables, 1996. "Foreign direct investment in economic transition: the changing pattern of investments," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 331-347, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2008:i:2:b:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudia Kwapil)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.