IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbfi/y2016i1b3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Weathering global shocks and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in emerging Europe: Comparing Turkey and Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Eller

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Florian Huber

    () (Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU))

  • Helene Schuberth

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

While both Turkey and Poland weathered the 2008/2009 crisis relatively well compared to other countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), their macrofinancial indicators responded fairly strongly to the Federal Reserve System’s tapering announcement in May 2013. Among other things, marked currency depreciation and reversals in capital flows challenged policymakers in the region. To get a deeper understanding of the transmission of global shocks to macrofinancial variables in CESEE, we use a Bayesian global vector autoregressive model to investigate the effects of a U.S.-based monetary policy shock. Our simulation results suggest that both Turkey and Poland exhibit pronounced short- to medium-run macroeconomic responses to U.S. monetary policy shocks. The responses of Turkey tend to be somewhat stronger than those of Poland and the CESEE average, signaling the structurally different nature of the Turkish economy. Overall, the identified impulse responses largely resemble the actual post-tapering announcement developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Eller & Florian Huber & Helene Schuberth, 2016. "Weathering global shocks and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in emerging Europe: Comparing Turkey and Poland," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 46-65.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2016:i:1:b:3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:7648443c-6718-4604-a4a6-46bd6a76dcb0/feei_2016_q1_studies_eller.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    2. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    3. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    4. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    5. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    6. Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "The international transmission of US shocks—Evidence from Bayesian global vector autoregressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 167-188.
    7. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
    9. Ralph De Haas & Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Elena Loukoianova & Alexander Pivovarsky, 2012. "Foreign Banks and the Vienna Initiative: Turning Sinners into Saints?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 62, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    10. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    11. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    12. repec:ebd:wpaper:143 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Markus Hameter & Mathias Lahnsteiner & Ursula Vogel, 2012. "Intra-Group Cross-Border Credit and Roll-Over Risks in CESEE – Evidence from Austrian Banks," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 23, pages 72-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external vulnerabilities; international shock transmission; monetary policy shock; tapering; capital flows; GVAR; Turkey; Poland; CESEE;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2016:i:1:b:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Eller). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.