IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v36y2025i2d10.1007_s11079-024-09770-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of Redistribution on Growth in Brazil: A GVAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luccas Assis Attílio

    (Federal University of Ouro Preto (UFOP))

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of income redistribution on the Brazilian GDP using a GVAR model with 33 economies from 1980Q1 to 2018Q4. We detect a significant impact of redistribution on the GDP, with investment contributing to the diffusion of the shock. We find that Brazilian redistributive policies affect the GDP of trade partners, mainly Latin American economies. Hence, we argue that redistribution provokes spillover effects. We also examine if external redistributive policies affect Brazil's GDP, and our estimates support this hypothesis. We created a new multiplier - the redistribution multiplier - and obtained values greater than two over time. Our research highlights the existence of spillover effects caused by redistributive policies and the importance of the international economy in the analysis. Redistribution policy effects are not enclosed to domestic borders.

Suggested Citation

  • Luccas Assis Attílio, 2025. "Effects of Redistribution on Growth in Brazil: A GVAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 577-605, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:36:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11079-024-09770-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09770-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11079-024-09770-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11079-024-09770-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cruz, Poliano Bastos da & Teixeira, Arilton & Monte-Mor, Danilo Soares, 2015. "O Efeito da Desigualdade da Distribuição de Renda no Crescimento Econômico," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(2), June.
    2. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Thomas Goda & Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Income Inequality and Wealth Concentration in the Recent Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 48(1), pages 3-27, January.
    4. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile & Antonio Martins Neto & Fernando Sossdorf, 2017. "Productivity, social expenditure and income distribution in Latin America," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 37(4), pages 660-679.
    5. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Faria, João Ricardo & Rodrigues, Mauro, 2023. "Does monetary policy impact CO2 emissions? A GVAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. da Silveira Barros Neto, Gilberto & Motta Correia, Fernando, 2020. "Uma contribuição para as estimativas de multiplicadores fiscais no Brasil: Análise de intervenção em modelos VAR ampliados por dummies," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 74(3), September.
    7. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    8. Ilan Bizberg, 2018. "Varieties of capitalism, growth and redistribution in Asia and Latin America," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 38(2), pages 261-279.
    9. Armando Barrientos, 2013. "The Rise of Social Assistance in Brazil," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 44(4), pages 887-910, July.
    10. Moura, Guilherme Valle, 2015. "Multiplicadores Fiscais e Investimento em Infraestrutura," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(1), March.
    11. Hayley Jones, 2022. "Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme: Aspirations and Realities of Poverty Reduction and Intergenerational Change," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 600-622, May.
    12. Lindert,Peter H., 2021. "Making Social Spending Work," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108478168, Enero-Abr.
    13. Eustáquio Reis, 2014. "Spatial income inequality in Brazil, 1872–2000," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(2), pages 119-140.
    14. Ferreira de Mendonça, Helder & Martins Esteves, Diogo, 2014. "Income inequality in Brazil: What has changed in recent years?," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Attílio, Luccas Assis, 2025. "Critical minerals: A new source of macroeconomic fluctuation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    3. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    4. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    5. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    6. Mr. Giovanni Ganelli & Nour Tawk, 2016. "Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/099, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Xidonas, Panos & Goutte, Stephane & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2024. "Introducing the GVAR-GARCH model: Evidence from financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V. & Smith, R.P, 2005. "What if the UK has Joined the Euro in 1999? An Empirical Evaluation using a Global VAR," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0528, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    10. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Diego Winkelried Quezada & Miguel Ángel Saldarriaga, 2012. "Latin American Growth Partners," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2012eng, July-Dece.
    12. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Faria, João Ricardo & Rodrigues, Mauro, 2023. "Does monetary policy impact CO2 emissions? A GVAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    13. Kadow, Alexander & Cerrato, Mario & MacDonald, Ronald & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 700-718.
    14. Hany Abdel-Latif & Tapas Mishra & Anita Staneva, 2019. "Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    15. Halil Ibrahim Gunduz & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & M. Eray Yucel, 2025. "A New Look at Cross-Country Aggregation in the Global VAR Approach: Theory and Monte Carlo Simulation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(1), pages 21-67, January.
    16. Peter Backé & Martin Feldkircher & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Economic Spillovers from the Euro Area to the CESEE Region via the Financial Channel: A GVAR Approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 50-64.
    17. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    19. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2020. "Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, volume 41, pages 143-189, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Andrey V. Zubarev & Maria A. Kirillova, 2023. "Исследование Чувствительности Стран–Членов Еаэс К Внешним Шокам При Помощи Модели Gvar," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 7, pages 8-20, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:36:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11079-024-09770-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.