IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v25y2014i2p337-371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Non-Monetary Side of the Global Disinflation

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Schwerhoff

    ()

  • Mouhamadou Sy

    ()

Abstract

The dramatic decline in inflation across the world over the last 20 years has been largely credited to improved monetary policy. The universal nature of the phenomenon, however, indicates that globalization, which occurred simultaneously, also played a role. We build a model based on Melitz ( 2003 ) in which falling transport cost lead to greater openness, higher productivity and lower inflation. Following a decline in transport cost openness increases and firm selection eliminates the least productive domestic firms. The consequent increase in average productivity leads to falling relative prices for goods. A cash-in-advance constraint allows analyzing how falling relative prices can lead to lower inflation. Using a data set of macroeconomic variables for 123 countries from all world regions, we disentangle the influences of monetary policy and globalization by showing that openness-induced productivity growth leads to a significant decline in inflation world-wide. The results can be further confirmed in a calibration exercise. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2014. "The Non-Monetary Side of the Global Disinflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 337-371, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:337-371 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-013-9283-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-013-9283-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esteve-Volart, Berta, 2004. "Gender discrimination and growth: theory and evidence from India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6641, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen J. Redding & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2008. "The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence from Dismantling the License Raj in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1397-1412.
    3. Barthélemy, J. & Cléaud, G., 2011. "Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area," Working papers 329, Banque de France.
    4. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1268-1290.
    5. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 245-276.
    6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 647-668.
    7. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    8. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 491-503.
    9. repec:cup:apsrev:v:97:y:2003:i:01:p:75-90_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1173-1193.
    11. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 295-316.
    12. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 50-62.
    13. Alessandro Calza, 2009. "Globalization, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps: Evidence from the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 301-320, December.
    14. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2010. "International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 247-280, October.
    16. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 300-316.
    17. Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond, 2000. "GMM Estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 321-340.
    18. Chad Syverson, 2004. "Market Structure and Productivity: A Concrete Example," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1181-1222, December.
    19. Dalia Marin, 2006. "A New International Division of Labor in Europe: Outsourcing and Offshoring to Eastern Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 612-622, 04-05.
    20. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    23. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1268-1290.
    24. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    25. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Trade costs, firms and productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 917-937, July.
    26. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 968-981.
    27. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
    28. Dan Bogart, 2011. "Did the Glorious Revolution contribute to the transport revolution? Evidence from investment in roads and rivers," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, pages 1073-1112.
    29. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    30. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 494-513.
    31. Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2007. "Selection, Growth, and the Size Distribution of Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(3), pages 1103-1144.
    32. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    33. Alfaro, Laura, 2005. "Inflation, openness, and exchange-rate regimes: The quest for short-term commitment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 229-249.
    34. Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Mark A. Wynne, 2010. "The global slack hypothesis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep.
    35. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 968-981.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Daniels & Sandeep Mazumder & David VanHoose, 2015. "Implications of Globalization for the Output-inflation Relationship: an Assessment," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 39-60.
    2. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Nistor, Simona, 2016. "Systemic risk, corporate governance and regulation of banks across emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 59-63.
    3. repec:eee:renene:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:422-433 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; Openness; Monetary policy; Productivity; Disinflation; F15; F41; E31;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:337-371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.