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Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation

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  • Therese Grijalva
  • Jayson Lusk
  • W. Shaw

Abstract

We use a laboratory experiment to elicit discount rates over a 20-year time horizon using government savings bonds as a payment vehicle. When using a constant (exponential) discount rate function, we find an implied average discount rate of 4.9 %, which is much lower than has been found in previous experimental studies that used time horizons of days or months. However, we also find strong support for non-constant, declining discount rates for longer time horizons, with an extrapolated implied annual discount rate approaching 0.5 % in 100 years. There is heterogeneity in discount rates and risk preferences in that people with more optimistic beliefs about technological progress have higher discount rates. These findings contribute to the debate over the appropriate discount rate to use in comparing the long-term benefits of climate change mitigation to the more immediate costs. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Therese Grijalva & Jayson Lusk & W. Shaw, 2014. "Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(1), pages 39-63, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:59:y:2014:i:1:p:39-63
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-013-9717-0
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    11. Da Rocha, José María & García-Cutrín, Javier & Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Touza, Julia, 2015. "Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
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    14. Therese C. Grijalva & Jayson L. Lusk & Rong Rong & W. Douglass Shaw, 2018. "Convex Time Budgets and Individual Discount Rates in the Long Run," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(1), pages 259-277, September.
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