IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v21n012018p71-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric Causality between Unemployment Rate and House Prices in each State of the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Seyed Hesam Ghodsi

    (Lake Forest College)

Abstract

The Great Recession of 2008 in the U.S. was mostly attributed to the U.S. housing market bubble that came to an end in 2007. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the above conjecture by detecting the asymmetric causality between house prices and unemployment rate in each state of the U.S. We find that indeed, decreases in house prices cause unemployment in 39 states. There is evidence in only 19 states that an increase in house prices causes unemployment. Since an asymmetric analysis requires the use of nonlinear models, we use nonlinear models and find evidence of asymmetric cointegration between the two variables in all states.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2018. "Asymmetric Causality between Unemployment Rate and House Prices in each State of the U.S," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 71-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:21:n:01:2018:p:71-92
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/v21n1-asymmetric-causality-between-unemploy-ment-rate-and-house-prices-in-each-state-of-the-us.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The Measurement and Determinants of Single‐Family House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382, September.
    2. Andrew Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Pairwise Convergence of District-level House Prices in London," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 721-740, March.
    3. Florian Verheyen, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – new evidence using the nonlinear ARDL framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 729-739.
    4. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    5. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    6. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    7. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    8. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    9. Nazif Durmaz, 2015. "Industry levelJ-curve in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 689-706, September.
    10. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, September.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    13. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2006. "Consumption asymmetry and the stock market: Empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 337-342, December.
    14. Jones, Jonathan D. & Joulfaian, David, 1991. "Federal govemment expenditures and revenues in the early years of the American republic: Evidence from 1792 to 1860," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 133-155.
    15. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    16. Jan Hatzius, 2008. "Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 195-227.
    17. N. Apergis & A. Rezitis, 2003. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 799-804.
    18. Andrew Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2013. "Testing for long-run convergence across regional house prices in the UK: a pairwise approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1227-1238, April.
    19. Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2016. "Do changes in the fundamentals have symmetric or asymmetric effects on house prices? Evidence from 52 states of the United States of America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(31), pages 2912-2936, July.
    21. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    22. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    23. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    24. Sei-Wan Kim & Radha Bhattacharya, 2009. "Regional Housing Prices in the USA: An Empirical Investigation of Nonlinearity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 443-460, May.
    25. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 63-74.
    26. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 63-47.
    27. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Maharouf Oyolola, 2007. "Export growth and output growth: An application of bounds testing approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 1-11, March.
    28. Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages 96-103, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sariye Belgin Akcay, 2023. "Current Account Imbalances, House Prices, and Institutions," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 342-391.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hesam Ghodsi & Muris Hadzic, 2021. "On the Link between House Prices and House Permits: Asymmetric Evidence from 51 States of the United States of America," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 323-361.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2017. "Asymmetric Causality and Asymmetric Cointegration between Income and House Prices in the United States of America," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(2), pages 127-165.
    2. repec:eee:joecas:v:18:y:2018:i:c:p:- is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam, 2018. "Asymmetric causality between the U.S. housing market and its stock market: Evidence from state level data," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hesam Ghodsi & Muris Hadzic, 2021. "On the Link between House Prices and House Permits: Asymmetric Evidence from 51 States of the United States of America," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 323-361.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2019. "On the Link between Value of the Dollar and Housing Production in the U.S.: Evidence from State Level Data," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 231-274.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Wu, Tsung-Pao, 2018. "Housing prices and real effective exchange rates in 18 OECD countries: A bootstrap multivariate panel Granger causality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 119-126.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2018. "Link between Housing and Stock Markets: Evidence from OECD Using Asymmetry Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 447-471.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2020. "On the Link between Oil Price and House Prices in the U.S.: Asymmetric Evidence from State Level Data," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1), pages 691-732.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Motavallizadeh-Ardakani, Amid, 2017. "On the value of the dollar and income inequality: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 64-78.
    10. Todd Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2011. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-temporal Analysis Using US State-level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 563-574.
    11. Huseyin Karamelikli, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamics of housing price in Turkey," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 46.
    12. William Miles, 2020. "The Dynamics of House Prices and Income in the UK," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 1023-1042.
    13. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Sajid Ali & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Asymmetric Nonlinear Impact of Oil Prices and Inflation on Residential Property Prices: a Case of US, UK and Canada," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 39-54, June.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    15. William Miles, 2020. "The Dynamics of House Prices and Income in the UK," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 397-416.
    16. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2018. "The real peso–dollar rate and US–Mexico industry trade: an asymmetric analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 350-389, September.
    18. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Harvey Hanafiah, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2020. "Asymmetric cointegration and the J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between Turkey and EU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 757-792, November.
    20. T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen & Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Causality between housing returns, inflation and economic growth with endogenous breaks," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 95-115.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1029-1081, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House Prices; Unemployment Rate; Asymmetry; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:21:n:01:2018:p:71-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.