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Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections

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  • Brett R. Gordon

    (Columbia Business School, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Wesley R. Hartmann

    (Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

Presidential elections provide both an important context in which to study advertising and a setting that mitigates the challenges of dynamics and endogeneity. We use the 2000 and 2004 general elections to analyze the effect of market-level advertising on county-level vote shares. The results indicate significant positive effects of advertising exposures. Both instrumental variables and fixed effects alter the ad coefficient. Advertising elasticities are smaller than are typical for branded goods yet significant enough to shift election outcomes. For example, if advertising were set to zero and all other factors held constant, three states' electoral votes would have changed parties in 2000. Given the narrow margin of victory in 2000, this shift would have resulted in a different president.

Suggested Citation

  • Brett R. Gordon & Wesley R. Hartmann, 2013. "Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 19-35, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:32:y:2013:i:1:p:19-35
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1120.0745
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    Cited by:

    1. Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," NBER Working Papers 23089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brett R. Gordon & Wesley R. Hartmann, 2016. "Advertising competition in presidential elections," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, March.
    3. Yajie Chen & Qinlin Zhong & Fuxiu Jiang, 2020. "The capital market spillover effect of product market advertising: Evidence from stock price synchronicity," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, December.
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    6. Eric Dunaway & Felix Munoz-Garcia, 2020. "Campaign contributions and policy convergence: asymmetric agents and donations constraints," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(3), pages 429-461, September.
    7. Brett Gordon & Mitchell Lovett & Ron Shachar & Kevin Arceneaux & Sridhar Moorthy & Michael Peress & Akshay Rao & Subrata Sen & David Soberman & Oleg Urminsky, 2012. "Marketing and politics: Models, behavior, and policy implications," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 391-403, June.
    8. Panova, Elena, 2015. "A passion for voting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 44-65.
    9. Beth L. Fossen & Girish Mallapragada & Anwesha De, 2021. "Impact of Political Television Advertisements on Viewers’ Response to Subsequent Advertisements," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 305-324, March.
    10. Pinar Yildirim & Andrei Simonov & Maria Petrova & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2020. "Are Political and Charitable Giving Substitutes? Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 26616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mitchell J. Lovett, 2019. "Empirical Research on Political Marketing: a Selected Review," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 6(3), pages 49-56, December.
    12. Doug J. Chung, 2013. "The Dynamic Advertising Effect of Collegiate Athletics," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(5), pages 679-698, September.
    13. Michael Sinkinson & Amanda Starc, 2015. "Ask Your Doctor? Direct-to-Consumer Advertising of Pharmaceuticals," NBER Working Papers 21045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lingling Zhang & Doug J. Chung, 2020. "The Air War vs. the Ground Game: An Analysis of Multichannel Marketing in U.S. Presidential Elections," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 872-892, September.
    15. Wang, Ao, 2021. "A BLP Demand Model of Product-Level Market Shares with Complementarity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1351, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    16. Beth L. Fossen & David A. Schweidel & Michael Lewis, 2019. "Examining Brand Strength of Political Candidates: a Performance Premium Approach," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 6(3), pages 63-75, December.
    17. Yanwen Wang & Michael Lewis & David A. Schweidel, 2018. "A Border Strategy Analysis of Ad Source and Message Tone in Senatorial Campaigns," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 333-355, May.
    18. Maria Petrova & Ananya Sen & Pinar Yildirim, 2020. "Social Media and Political Contributions: The Impact of New Technology on Political Competition," Papers 2011.02924, arXiv.org.
    19. Tamgid Ahmed Chowdhury & Shahneela Naheed, 2019. "Factors Affecting Political Marketing in Rural and Urban Bangladesh: A Multi-Dimensional Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 18(1), pages 97-119, June.
    20. Naoki Aizawa & You Suk Kim, 2015. "Advertising and Risk Selection in Health Insurance Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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