IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i13p6176-d1695537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Hidden Cost of Global Trade: Evidence from Plastic Waste Trade and Its Ecological Ramifications Across Major Waste-Trading Nations

Author

Listed:
  • Ayberk Şeker

    (Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of International Trade and Logistics, Bursa Technical University, 16310 Bursa, Türkiye)

  • Nizamettin Öztürkçü

    (Social Sciences Vocational School, Department of Management and Organization, Bursa Uludağ University, 16059 Bursa, Türkiye)

  • Muhammed Fatih Aydemir

    (Social Sciences Vocational School, Department of Foreign Trade, Bursa Uludağ University, 16059 Bursa, Türkiye)

Abstract

The rapid expansion of plastic waste trade has intensified environmental pressures, accelerating ecosystem degradation and climate change. We examine the long-term impacts of plastic waste imports and domestic waste production on ecological footprints and greenhouse gas emissions across 20 countries representing 70% of global plastic waste trade and 45% of world GDP. Under the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, we explore nonlinear interactions among economic growth, urbanization, and sustainability goals. Using a panel simultaneous equations approach, we apply Pedroni, Kao, and Westerlund cointegration tests and Fully Modified and Dynamic OLS estimators to address endogeneity and heterogeneity. Robustness checks include alternative environmental indicators and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test. Results demonstrate a stable long-run equilibrium: plastic waste imports substantially increase ecological footprints and emissions, while progress on sustainable development goals mitigates some damage. The negative GDP squared coefficient supports the EKC hypothesis, indicating that environmental impacts rise initially with growth but decline once income exceeds a threshold. These findings highlight the need for stronger international regulations, enhanced waste management infrastructures, and circular economy strategies. Focused investment in sustainable technologies and global cooperation is essential to lower environmental costs of plastic waste trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayberk Şeker & Nizamettin Öztürkçü & Muhammed Fatih Aydemir, 2025. "The Hidden Cost of Global Trade: Evidence from Plastic Waste Trade and Its Ecological Ramifications Across Major Waste-Trading Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:13:p:6176-:d:1695537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/13/6176/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/13/6176/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    2. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    3. Fatima Zahra Moussaid & Hikma Bachegour & Mounir Jerry & Ahlam Qafas, 2025. "Probing the asymmetric impact of clean energy technologies on environmental quality: testing load capacity curve hypothesis in Spain," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 4425-4444, February.
    4. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    5. Rakesh Kumar & Anurag Verma & Arkajyoti Shome & Rama Sinha & Srishti Sinha & Prakash Kumar Jha & Ritesh Kumar & Pawan Kumar & Shubham & Shreyas Das & Prabhakar Sharma & P. V. Vara Prasad, 2021. "Impacts of Plastic Pollution on Ecosystem Services, Sustainable Development Goals, and Need to Focus on Circular Economy and Policy Interventions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-41, September.
    6. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    8. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    11. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Enru Wang & Changhong Miao & Xiaofei Chen, 2022. "Circular Economy and the Changing Geography of International Trade in Plastic Waste," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-19, November.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "Electricity consumption-growth nexus: Evidence from panel data for transition countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 604-608, May.
    17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    18. Ugur Korkut Pata & Selin Karlilar Pata, 2024. "Towards sustainable development in African countries: Are modern and combustible renewable energies effective?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 6493-6503, December.
    19. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    20. Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Harrison, Ann E., 2003. "Moving to greener pastures? Multinationals and the pollution haven hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-23, February.
    21. Martin Medina, 2008. "The Informal recycling Sector in Developing Countries : Organizing Waste Pickers to Enhance their Impact," World Bank Publications - Reports 10586, The World Bank Group.
    22. Pukitta Chunsuttiwat & Ian Coxhead, 2024. "Will you take my (s)crap? Waste havens in the global plastic waste trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(4), pages 1203-1246, November.
    23. Changping Zhao & Xinli Qi & Jin Wang & Fengyang Du & Xiaolan Shi, 2022. "Predicting Possible New Links to Future Global Plastic Waste Trade Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-22, April.
    24. Cole, Matthew A., 2004. "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-81, January.
    25. Rauscher, Michael, 2005. "International Trade, Foreign Investment, and the Environment," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1403-1456, Elsevier.
    26. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    27. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 102-115.
    4. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Francisco García-Lillo & Eduardo Sánchez-García & Bartolomé Marco-Lajara & Pedro Seva-Larrosa, 2023. "Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development: A Bibliometric Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Sofien Tiba & Musavir Ul Habib, 2024. "Examining the Causal Linkages Between Nuclear Energy, Environment, and Economic Growth: An Application from the SAARC Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 9699-9722, June.
    7. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    8. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2016. "Do population age groups matter in the energy use of the oil-exporting countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 82-99.
    9. Kahia, Montassar & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Lanouar, Charfeddine, 2017. "Renewable and non-renewable energy use - economic growth nexus: The case of MENA Net Oil Importing Countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 127-140.
    10. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    11. Skare, Marinko & Ozturk, Ilhan & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Stjepanovic, Sasa, 2024. "Energy as the new frontier: Dynamic panel data analysis revealing energy's transformative role in economic growth and technological progress," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Tiwari, Sunil & Si Mohammed, Kamel & Guesmi, Khaled, 2023. "A way forward to end energy poverty in China: Role of carbon-cutting targets and net-zero commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    13. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    14. Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Isiaka Akande Raifu & Oluwatosin Adeniyi, 2024. "Globalisation and Inclusive Growth in Africa: The Role of Institutional Quality," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(1), pages 62-97, February.
    15. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2013. "Private Donations, Government Grants, Commercial Activities, and Fundraising: Cointegration and Causality for NGOs in International Development Cooperation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 234-251.
    16. Afef Bouattour & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2024. "The non-linear relationship between ESG performance and bank stability in the digital era: new evidence from a regime-switching approach," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    17. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    18. Tarik Dogru & Umit Bulut & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, 2021. "Modeling tourism demand: Theoretical and empirical considerations for future research," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 874-889, June.
    19. Dierk Herzer, 2016. "Unions and Income Inequality: A Heterogeneous Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(3), pages 318-346, September.
    20. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:13:p:6176-:d:1695537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.