IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fru/finjrn/230603p43-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandr Patalaha

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Maria A. Shchepeleva

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

This research focuses on the determinants of banking crises. Despite all efforts to create systems of leading indicators, banking crises still occur, leading to negative consequences not only in the financial but also in the real sector of the economy. Our objective is to figure out how the characteristics of past banking crises, in particular the amount of liquidity support provided by the government, are related to the probability of subsequent banking crises. To accomplish this task, we use a classification tree methodology which we apply to a sample of 56 countries over the period 2000–2021. In addition to the characteristics of past crisis episodes, we add to the list of potential predictors of banking crises indicators related to the depth, structure and efficiency of the banking sector; institutional and macroeconomic indicators; and the index of macroprudential policy. To test the robustness of our results, we perform variable selection through Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that liquidity support during the past banking crisis is important for future crises. We demonstrate that excessive government support aimed at stabilizing the system during a crisis may affect future banking sector stability mainly by increasing the level of moral hazard in the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandr Patalaha & Maria A. Shchepeleva, 2023. "Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 43-60, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:230603:p:43-60
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-43-60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2023/6/statii/03_6_2023_v15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-43-60?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    2. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    3. Shchepeleva, Maria & Stolbov, Mikhail & Weill, Laurent, 2022. "Has the Global Financial Crisis increased wealth inequality?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 148-160.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    5. Paul Tucker, 2014. "The lender of last resort and modern central banking: principles and reconstruction," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Re-thinking the lender of last resort, volume 79, pages 10-42, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    8. Andrew Hauser, 2014. "Lender of last resort operations during the financial crisis: seven practical lessons from the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Re-thinking the lender of last resort, volume 79, pages 81-92, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
    12. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Bordo, Michael D., 2014. "Rules for a lender of last resort: An historical perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 126-134.
    14. Jerg Gutmann & Katharina Pfaff & Stefan Voigt, 2017. "Banking crises and human rights," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1374-1377, November.
    15. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2019. "Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 239-331.
    16. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Carola Frydman & Chenzi Xu, 2023. "Banking Crises in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 31092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    20. Belkhir, Mohamed & Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2022. "Macroprudential policies, economic growth and banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    21. Kim Ristolainen, 2018. "Predicting Banking Crises with Artificial Neural Networks: The Role of Nonlinearity and Heterogeneity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(1), pages 31-62, January.
    22. Mark Joy & Marek Rusnák & Kateřina Šmídková & Bořek Vašíček, 2017. "Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 44-67, January.
    23. Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-114.
    24. Duttagupta, Rupa & Cashin, Paul, 2011. "Anatomy of banking crises in developing and emerging market countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 354-376, March.
    25. Andersson, Fredrik NG, 2016. "A Blessing in Disguise? Banking Crises and Institutional Change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-147.
    26. Gries, Thomas & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2013. "Do banking crises cause terrorism?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 321-324.
    27. Dietrich Domanski & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Rethinking the lender of last resort: workshop summary," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Re-thinking the lender of last resort, volume 79, pages 1-9, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    29. Felix Ward, 2017. "Spotting the Danger Zone: Forecasting Financial Crises With Classification Tree Ensembles and Many Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 359-378, March.
    30. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
    31. Goodfriend, Marvin, 2014. "Lessons from a century of FED policy: Why monetary and credit policies need rules and boundaries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 112-120.
    32. Eero Tölö & Helinä Laakkonen & Simo Kalatie, 2018. "Evaluating Indicators for Use in Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 51-112, March.
    33. Tanaka, Katsuyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Random forests-based early warning system for bank failures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 118-121.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    2. Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "Measuring financial soundness around the world: A machine learning approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Castro, Vítor & Wood, Justine, 2022. "A new comprehensive database of financial crises: Identification, frequency, and duration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    9. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beni Kouevi-Gath & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Do banking crises improve democracy?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 413-446, March.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    12. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    13. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2015. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises," Economics wp68, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    14. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    15. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    16. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    19. de Haan, Jakob & Fang, Yi & Jing, Zhongbo, 2020. "Does the risk on banks’ balance sheets predict banking crises? New evidence for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 254-268.
    20. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2021. "A Markov chain measure of systemic banking crisis frequency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(16), pages 1351-1356, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    classification tree; banking crisis; Bayesian model averaging; moral hazard;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:230603:p:43-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gennady Ageev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frigvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.