Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2017.1357972
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018.
"Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
- Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying Excessive Credit Growth and Leverage," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
- Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Working Paper Series 1723, European Central Bank.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014.
"Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
- Šmídková, Kateřina & Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matĕjů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1485, European Central Bank.
- Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnák & Katerina Šmídková & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises: Early Warning Indicators for Developed Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates,"
Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,
Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
- André Fourçans & Raphaël Franck, 2003. "Currency Crises," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3124, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018.
"An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
- Mark Joy & Marek Rusnák & Kateřina Šmídková & Bořek Vašíček, 2017.
"Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 44-67, January.
- Mark Joy & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries," Working Papers 2014/16, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
- Šmídková, Kateřina & Joy, Mark & Rusnák, Marek & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries," Working Paper Series 1810, European Central Bank.
- Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
- Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
- Sarlin, Peter & Holopainen, Markus, 2016. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1900, European Central Bank.
- Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023.
"Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
- Eijffinger, Sylvester & Karatas, Bilge, 2013. "Three Sisters: The Interlinkage between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024.
"Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
- Tran Huynh & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: can political indicators improve prediction?," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023.
"Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
- Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kang, Miao & Kapadia, Sujit & Simsek, Özgür, 2020. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Bank of England working papers 848, Bank of England.
- Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2021. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Working Paper Series 2614, European Central Bank.
- Stijn Ferrari & Mara Pirovano, 2016. "Does one size fit all at all times? The role of country specificities and state dependencies in predicting banking crises," Working Paper Research 297, National Bank of Belgium.
- Xianglong Liu, 2023. "Towards Better Banking Crisis Prediction: Could an Automatic Variable Selection Process Improve the Performance?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 288-312, June.
- Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
- Jean-Charles Bricongne & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2020.
"Is Private Debt Excessive?,"
Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 471-512, April.
- Jean-Charles Bricongne & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2020. "Is Private Debt Excessive?," Post-Print hal-03529890, HAL.
- Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021.
"Identifying indicators of systemic risk,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
- Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Discussion Papers 33/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017.
"Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries,"
OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
- Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2015. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1250, OECD Publishing.
- Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018.
"Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
- António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," Working Papers w201613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:12:p:1933-1963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.