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Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century

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Abstract

Tracing the evolution of labor demand in the United States, this Economic Commentary reveals that the disproportionate rise in relative productivity of college-educated labor that shaped the latter half of the 20th century has plateaued since 2000. Our analysis suggests that technical change in the 21st century may no longer favor college graduates, in which case further growth in the employment share of college-educated workers would likely lower the premium that college-educated workers receive compared with non-college-educated workers.

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  • Alexander Cline & Barış Kaymak, 2025. "Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(04), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:99742
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202504
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    1. Maya Escueta & Andre Joshua Nickow & Philip Oreopoulos & Vincent Quan, 2020. "Upgrading Education with Technology: Insights from Experimental Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(4), pages 897-996, December.
    2. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Benjamin M. Sand, 2016. "The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 199-247.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    4. Audra Bowlus & Lance Lochner & Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu, 2023. "Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change: The Canonical Model Revisited," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(6), pages 1783-1819.
    5. Lutz Hendricks & Todd Schoellman, 2018. "Human Capital and Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 665-700.
    6. Benjamin F. Jones, 2014. "The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3752-3777, November.
    7. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
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    1. Alexander Cline & Barış Kaymak, 2025. "Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(14), pages 1-10, November.

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