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Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century

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Abstract

Tracing the evolution of labor demand in the United States, this Economic Commentary reveals that the disproportionate rise in relative productivity of college-educated labor that shaped the latter half of the 20th century has plateaued since 2000. Our analysis suggests that technical change in the 21st century may no longer favor college graduates, in which case further growth in the employment share of college-educated workers would likely lower the premium that college-educated workers receive compared with non-college-educated workers.

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  • Alexander Cline & Barış Kaymak, 2025. "Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(04), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:99742
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202504
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Lutz Hendricks & Todd Schoellman, 2018. "Human Capital and Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 665-700.
    6. Maya Escueta & Andre Joshua Nickow & Philip Oreopoulos & Vincent Quan, 2020. "Upgrading Education with Technology: Insights from Experimental Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(4), pages 897-996, December.
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