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Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant? (in English)

  • Leslie LIPSCHITZ


    (IMF Institute)

  • Timothy LANE


    (IMF, Western Hemisphere Department)



    (IMF Institute)

Registered author(s):

    This paper discusses the forces driving capital flows in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). It argues that various influences – specifically, the real exchange rate history and trend and the factor intensity of production – can combine to motivate very large capital inflows. These inflows can either undermine attempts at monetary restraint or force excessive appreciations. They can also render the economy highly vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment. The policy implications of the analysis are awkward: exposure to global capital markets sets up difficult dilemmas for policy and leads to vulnerabilities that can be reduced but not eliminated.

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    Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 56 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 5-6 (May)
    Pages: 202-222

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    Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:5-6:p:202-222
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    1. Timothy D. Lane & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Tsidi M Tsikata & Steven T Phillips & Atish R. Ghosh & A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand," IMF Occasional Papers 178, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    5. Catherine A Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
    6. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June.
    7. Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Pietro Garibaldi, 2002. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Working Papers 02/64, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 1999. "Do capital controls influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. By A. Javier Hamann, 2001. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 4.
    10. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
    11. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Michael P. Dooley & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?," NBER Working Papers 4792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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