IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v54y2017icp30-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration

Author

Listed:
  • Javid, Roxana J.
  • Nejat, Ali

Abstract

This study focused on the adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) as a policy towards having a more sustainable transportation with lower Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. The current paper aimed to explore potential factors that can be attributed to purchasing PEVs in order to estimate their penetration in 58 California counties. A Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis was applied to the 2012 California Household Travel Survey dataset, which includes both PEV and conventional car buyers’ information, as well as some other secondary data sources. The model developed a broad set of factors including demographic and travel-related characteristics, socioeconomic variables, and infrastructural and regional specifications. The results identified that a household's income, maximum level of education in the household, the buyer's car sharing status, charging stations density, and gas price in the region can significantly impact PEV adoption. The model was validated using data from the 2012 Household Travel Survey conducted in the Delaware Valley region. With sufficient data availability, the methodology can be applied to evaluate changes in vehicle fleet composition and the levels of emissions in response to transportation policies. The model is believed to have a wide range of applications in electricity utilizing, gasoline/diesel retailing, and battery and automotive manufacturing. Additionally, the model can assist policy makers and transportation planners to optimize their infrastructural investments by identifying counties where the response of drivers to added charging station would be maximized, implying that larger benefits can be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Javid, Roxana J. & Nejat, Ali, 2017. "A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 30-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:30-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X16303584
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.11.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egbue, Ona & Long, Suzanna, 2012. "Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: An analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 717-729.
    2. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2016. "Residential energy demand in the United States: Analysis using static and dynamic approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 637-649.
    3. Andersson, S.-L. & Elofsson, A.K. & Galus, M.D. & Göransson, L. & Karlsson, S. & Johnsson, F. & Andersson, G., 2010. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as regulating power providers: Case studies of Sweden and Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2751-2762, June.
    4. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
    5. Liu, Yangwen & Tremblay, Jean-Michel & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2014. "An integrated model for discrete and continuous decisions with application to vehicle ownership, type and usage choices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 315-328.
    6. Leighty, Wayne & Ogden, Joan M. & Yang, Christopher, 2012. "Modeling transitions in the California light-duty vehicles sector to achieve deep reductions in transportation greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 52-67.
    7. Khan, Mobashwir & Kockelman, Kara M., 2012. "Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 225-233.
    8. Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P., 2015. "A variance inflation factor and backward elimination based robust regression model for forecasting monthly electricity demand using climatic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 385-394.
    9. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, January.
    10. Gallagher, Kelly Sims & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 172-183.
    12. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2010. "Can environmental sustainability be used to manage energy price risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1131-1138, September.
    13. Eppstein, Margaret J. & Grover, David K. & Marshall, Jeffrey S. & Rizzo, Donna M., 2011. "An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3789-3802, June.
    14. Rogan, Fionn & Dennehy, Emer & Daly, Hannah & Howley, Martin & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Impacts of an emission based private car taxation policy - First year ex-post analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 583-597, August.
    15. Hidrue, Michael K. & Parsons, George R. & Kempton, Willett & Gardner, Meryl P., 2011. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 686-705, September.
    16. Ghommem, Mehdi & Hajj, Muhammad R. & Puri, Ishwar K., 2012. "Influence of natural and anthropogenic carbon dioxide sequestration on global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 235, pages 1-7.
    17. He, Fang & Wu, Di & Yin, Yafeng & Guan, Yongpei, 2013. "Optimal deployment of public charging stations for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 87-101.
    18. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2017. "Modeling household energy expenditure in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 822-832.
    19. Smith, William J., 2010. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles--A low-carbon solution for Ireland?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1485-1499, March.
    20. Krupa, Joseph S. & Rizzo, Donna M. & Eppstein, Margaret J. & Brad Lanute, D. & Gaalema, Diann E. & Lakkaraju, Kiran & Warrender, Christina E., 2014. "Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 14-31.
    21. Paleti, Rajesh, 2015. "Implicit choice set generation in discrete choice models: Application to household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 132-149.
    22. Jones, Steven & Tefe, Moses & Appiah-Opoku, Seth, 2013. "Proposed framework for sustainability screening of urban transport projects in developing countries: A case study of Accra, Ghana," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 21-34.
    23. Stanley, John K. & Hensher, David A. & Loader, Chris, 2011. "Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1020-1030.
    24. Yang, Christopher & McCollum, David L & McCarthy, Ryan & Leighty, Wayne, 2009. "Meeting an 80% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation by 2050: A Case Study in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2ns1q98f, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    25. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    26. J. Javid, Roxana & Nejat, Ali & Hayhoe, Katharine, 2014. "Selection of CO2 mitigation strategies for road transportation in the United States using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 960-972.
    27. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    28. Higgins, Andrew & Paevere, Phillip & Gardner, John & Quezada, George, 2012. "Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: An application to the uptake of electric vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1399-1412.
    29. Diamond, David, 2009. "The impact of government incentives for hybrid-electric vehicles: Evidence from US states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 972-983, March.
    30. Kihm, Alexander & Trommer, Stefan, 2014. "The new car market for electric vehicles and the potential for fuel substitution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-157.
    31. Arce, G.L.A.F. & Carvalho, J.A. & Nascimento, L.F.C., 2014. "A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 59-67.
    32. Yedla, Sudhakar & Shrestha, Ram M., 2003. "Multi-criteria approach for the selection of alternative options for environmentally sustainable transport system in Delhi," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 717-729, October.
    33. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    34. Bubeck, Steffen & Tomaschek, Jan & Fahl, Ulrich, 2016. "Perspectives of electric mobility: Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in Germany," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 63-77.
    35. Skippon, Stephen & Veeraraghavan, Shoba & Ma, Hongrui & Gadd, Paul & Tait, Nigel, 2012. "Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: Case studies for the USA and Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1405-1423.
    36. Dumortier, Jerome & Siddiki, Saba & Carley, Sanya & Cisney, Joshua & Krause, Rachel M. & Lane, Bradley W. & Rupp, John A. & Graham, John D., 2015. "Effects of providing total cost of ownership information on consumers’ intent to purchase a hybrid or plug-in electric vehicle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 71-86.
    37. Schuitema, Geertje & Anable, Jillian & Skippon, Stephen & Kinnear, Neale, 2013. "The role of instrumental, hedonic and symbolic attributes in the intention to adopt electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 39-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Javid, Roxana & Nejat, Ali & Hayhoe, Katharine, 2014. "Selection of CO2 mitigation strategies for road transportation in the United States using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 960-972.
    2. Krupa, Joseph S. & Rizzo, Donna M. & Eppstein, Margaret J. & Brad Lanute, D. & Gaalema, Diann E. & Lakkaraju, Kiran & Warrender, Christina E., 2014. "Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 14-31.
    3. Zhang, Qi & Li, Hailong & Zhu, Lijing & Campana, Pietro Elia & Lu, Huihui & Wallin, Fredrik & Sun, Qie, 2018. "Factors influencing the economics of public charging infrastructures for EV – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 500-509.
    4. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Combined Vehicle Type and Fuel Type Choices of Private Households: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 17/2018, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised May 2019.
    5. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Sherilyn Wee, 2017. "Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 79-93, January.
    6. Morton, Craig & Anable, Jillian & Yeboah, Godwin & Cottrill, Caitlin, 2018. "The spatial pattern of demand in the early market for electric vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 119-130.
    7. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Abrahamse, Wokje & Zhang, Long & Ren, Jingzheng, 2019. "Pleasure or profit? Surveying the purchasing intentions of potential electric vehicle adopters in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 69-81.
    8. Wolf, Ingo & Schröder, Tobias & Neumann, Jochen & de Haan, Gerhard, 2015. "Changing minds about electric cars: An empirically grounded agent-based modeling approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 269-285.
    9. Li, Wenbo & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Geng, Jichao, 2017. "A review of factors influencing consumer intentions to adopt battery electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 318-328.
    10. Mandys, F., 2021. "Electric vehicles and consumer choices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2017. "The impact of energy policies in scenarios on GHG emission reduction in passenger car mobility in the EU-15," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1088-1096.
    12. Egnér, Filippa & Trosvik, Lina, 2018. "Electric vehicle adoption in Sweden and the impact of local policy instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 584-596.
    13. She, Zhen-Yu & Qing Sun, & Ma, Jia-Jun & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2017. "What are the barriers to widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles? A survey of public perception in Tianjin, China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-40.
    14. Udit Chawla & Rajesh Mohnot & Varsha Mishra & Harsh Vikram Singh & Ayush Kumar Singh, 2023. "Factors Influencing Customer Preference and Adoption of Electric Vehicles in India: A Journey towards More Sustainable Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    15. White, Lee V. & Sintov, Nicole D., 2017. "You are what you drive: Environmentalist and social innovator symbolism drives electric vehicle adoption intentions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 94-113.
    16. Jingnan Zhang & Shichun Xu & Zhengxia He & Chengze Li & Xiaona Meng, 2022. "Factors Influencing Adoption Intention for Electric Vehicles under a Subsidy Deduction: From Different City-Level Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, May.
    17. Hardman, Scott & Shiu, Eric & Steinberger-Wilckens, Robert, 2016. "Comparing high-end and low-end early adopters of battery electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 40-57.
    18. Fanchao Liao & Eric Molin & Bert van Wee, 2017. "Consumer preferences for electric vehicles: a literature review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 252-275, May.
    19. Higueras-Castillo, Elena & Kalinic, Zoran & Marinkovic, Veljko & Liébana-Cabanillas, Francisco J., 2020. "A mixed analysis of perceptions of electric and hybrid vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Pan, Huizhong, 2018. "Analysis of public acceptance of electric vehicles: An empirical study in Shanghai," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 284-291.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:30-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.