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Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data


  • Khan, Mobashwir
  • Kockelman, Kara M.


GPS data for a year's worth of travel by 255 Seattle households illuminate how plug-in electric vehicles can match household needs. The results suggest that a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) with 100mi of range should meet the needs of 50% of one-vehicle households and 80% of multiple-vehicle households, when charging once a day and relying on another vehicle or mode just 4 days a year. Moreover, the average one-vehicle Seattle household uses each vehicle 23mi per day and should be able to electrify close to 80% of its miles, while meeting all its travel needs, using a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with 40-mile all-electric range. Households owning two or more vehicles can electrify 50 to 70% of their total household miles using a PHEV40, depending on how they assign the vehicle across drivers each day. Cost comparisons between the average single-vehicle household owning a Chevrolet Cruze versus a Volt PHEV suggest that, when gas prices are $3.50 per gallon and electricity rates are at 11.2ct/kWh, the Volt will save the household $535 per year in operating costs. Similarly, the Toyota Prius PHEV will provide an annual savings of $538 per year over the Corolla.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Mobashwir & Kockelman, Kara M., 2012. "Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 225-233.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:46:y:2012:i:c:p:225-233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.055

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fontaine, Peter J., 2008. "Shortening the Path to Energy Independence: A Policy Agenda to Commercialize Battery-Electric Vehicles," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 22-42, July.
    2. Greene, David L., 2010. "Measuring energy security: Can the United States achieve oil independence?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1614-1621, April.
    3. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Javid, Roxana J. & Nejat, Ali, 2017. "A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 30-42.
    2. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:2:p:695-713 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wu, Xing & Dong, Jing & Lin, Zhenhong, 2014. "Cost analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles using GPS-based longitudinal travel data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 206-217.
    4. Björnsson, Lars-Henrik & Karlsson, Sten, 2015. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: How individual movement patterns affect battery requirements, the potential to replace conventional fuels, and economic viability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 336-347.
    5. Daina, Nicolò & Sivakumar, Aruna & Polak, John W., 2017. "Modelling electric vehicles use: a survey on the methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 447-460.
    6. Jung, Jaesung & Cho, Yongju & Cheng, Danling & Onen, Ahmet & Arghandeh, Reza & Dilek, Murat & Broadwater, Robert P., 2013. "Monte Carlo analysis of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles and Distributed Energy Resource growth with residential energy storage in Michigan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 218-235.
    7. Krupa, Joseph S. & Rizzo, Donna M. & Eppstein, Margaret J. & Brad Lanute, D. & Gaalema, Diann E. & Lakkaraju, Kiran & Warrender, Christina E., 2014. "Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 14-31.
    8. Meinrenken, Christoph J. & Lackner, Klaus S., 2015. "Fleet view of electrified transportation reveals smaller potential to reduce GHG emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 393-403.
    9. Wang, Ying-Wei & Lin, Chuah-Chih, 2013. "Locating multiple types of recharging stations for battery-powered electric vehicle transport," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 76-87.
    10. De Gennaro, Michele & Paffumi, Elena & Scholz, Harald & Martini, Giorgio, 2014. "GIS-driven analysis of e-mobility in urban areas: An evaluation of the impact on the electric energy grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 94-116.
    11. repec:eee:enepol:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:367-379 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Arslan, Okan & Yıldız, Barış & Ekin Karaşan, Oya, 2014. "Impacts of battery characteristics, driver preferences and road network features on travel costs of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) for long-distance trips," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 168-178.


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