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Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings

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  • Hensher, David A.
  • Greene, William H.
  • Li, Zheng

Abstract

In recent years we have seen important extensions of logit models in behavioural research such as incorporation of preference and scale heterogeneity, attribute processing heuristics, and estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) in WTP space. With rare exception, however, a non-linear treatment of the parameter set to allow for behavioural reality, such as embedded risk attitude and perceptual conditioning of occurrence probabilities attached to specific attributes, is absent. This is especially relevant to the recent focus in travel behaviour research on identifying the willingness to pay for reduced travel time variability, which is the source of estimates of the value of trip reliability that has been shown to take on an increasingly important role in project appraisal. This paper incorporates, in a generalised non-linear (in parameters) logit model, alternative functional forms for perceptual conditioning (known as probability weighting) and risk attitude in the utility function to account for travel time variability, and then derives an empirical estimate of the willingness to pay for trip time variability-embedded travel time savings as an alternative to separate estimates of time savings and trip time reliability. We illustrate the richness of the approach using a stated choice data set for commuter choice between unlabelled attribute packages. Statistically significant risk attitude parameters and parameters underlying decision weights are estimated for multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models, along with values of expected travel time savings.

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  • Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:7:p:954-972
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    Cited by:

    1. Mickaël Beaud & Thierry Blayac & Maïté Stéphan, 2014. "Measurements and properties of the values of time and reliability," Working Papers 14-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jul 2014.
    2. Chinh Ho & Corinne Mulley, 2013. "Tour-based mode choice of joint household travel patterns on weekend and weekday," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 789-811, July.
    3. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    4. Dixit, Vinayak V. & Harb, Rami C. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2015. "Measuring risk aversion to guide transportation policy: Contexts, incentives, and respondents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 15-34.
    5. Rey, David & Dixit, Vinayak V. & Ygnace, Jean-Luc & Waller, S. Travis, 2016. "An endogenous lottery-based incentive mechanism to promote off-peak usage in congested transit systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 46-55.
    6. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Estimating values of travel time savings for toll roads: Avoiding a common error," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 60-66.
    7. Guotao Hu & Aruna Sivakumar & John Polak, 2012. "Modelling travellers’ risky choice in a revealed preference context: a comparison of EUT and non-EUT approaches," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 825-841, July.
    8. David A. Hensher & Chinh Ho, 2016. "Identifying a behaviourally relevant choice set from stated choice data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 197-217, March.
    9. Ho, Chinh & Mulley, Corinne, 2015. "Intra-household Interactions in tour-based mode choice: The role of social, temporal, spatial and resource constraints," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 52-63.
    10. Collins, Andrew T. & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2013. "Specification issues in a generalised random parameters attribute nonattendance model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 234-253.
    11. Zheng Li & David Hensher, 2013. "Behavioural implications of preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs in modelling risky travel choice with travel time variability," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 505-523, May.
    12. Balbontin, Camila & Hensher, David A. & Collins, Andrew T., 2017. "Integrating attribute non-attendance and value learning with risk attitudes and perceptual conditioning," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 172-191.
    13. Canales, Elizabeth & Bergtold, Jason S. & Williams, Jeffery & Peterson, Jeffrey, 2015. "Estimating farmers’ risk attitudes and risk premiums for the adoption of conservation practices under different contractual arrangements: A stated choice experiment," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205640, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Beaud, Mickael & Blayac, Thierry & Stéphan, Maïté, 2016. "The impact of travel time variability and travelers’ risk attitudes on the values of time and reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 207-224.
    15. Li, Zhi-Chun & Sheng, Dian, 2016. "Forecasting passenger travel demand for air and high-speed rail integration service: A case study of Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 397-410.
    16. Uchida, Kenetsu, 2014. "Estimating the value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 129-147.
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    18. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Scheduling choices under rank dependent utility maximization," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    19. repec:eee:eejocm:v:25:y:2017:i:c:p:11-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:eee:transb:v:102:y:2017:i:c:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Tan, Zhijia & Yang, Hai & Guo, Renyong, 2014. "Pareto efficiency of reliability-based traffic equilibria and risk-taking behavior of travelers," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-31.
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    24. Hensher, David A. & Ho, Chinh & Knowles, Louise, 2016. "Efficient contracting and incentive agreements between regulators and bus operators: The influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-40.

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