IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v172y2021ics0040162521004431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Low-carbon technology development under multiple adoption risks

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Jian-Xin
  • Zhu, Kaiwei
  • Tan, Xianchun
  • Gu, Baihe

Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now an important global issue. The promotion and application of low-carbon technologies is one important method of achieving greenhouse gas reduction. The core problem is identifying the types of technology to introduce, when and to what degree, while satisfying the related sustainable goals. This study proposes a frame of development path design for low-carbon technology. Contrary to existing methods, our innovation lies in the introduction of multiple uncertainties in the technology adoption process. We consider four main types of technical risks, and provide corresponding quantitative descriptions. Our framework describes a class of technology development path problems as dynamic programming problems with different random constraints. Using existing numerical simulation methods, we obtain solutions of the original problem at a certain level of confidence, and discuss important issues, such as the learned robust features, and the relevant sensitivity of the model in a given solution space. Related results confirm the effectiveness of our model. Notably, our analysis framework can be generalized to solve similar problems, especially, in the characterization of technical risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Jian-Xin & Zhu, Kaiwei & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe, 2021. "Low-carbon technology development under multiple adoption risks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:172:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521004431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521004431
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Liu, Pei & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 865-888.
    2. Rozenberg, Julie & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2020. "Instrument choice and stranded assets in the transition to clean capital," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    4. Kitzing, Lena, 2014. "Risk implications of renewable support instruments: Comparative analysis of feed-in tariffs and premiums using a mean–variance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 495-505.
    5. Thepkhun, Panida & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Shrestha, Ram M., 2013. "Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 561-572.
    6. Wang, Ying & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Shi, Xunpeng, 2020. "Regional renewable energy development in China: A multidimensional assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Ahmed, Sajjad & Elsholkami, Mohamed & Elkamel, Ali & Du, Juan & Ydstie, Erik B. & Douglas, Peter L., 2014. "Financial risk management for new technology integration in energy planning under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 75-81.
    8. Soni, Anmol, 2018. "Out of sight, out of mind? Investigating the longitudinal impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on public opinion in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 169-175.
    9. Karan, Ebrahim & Asadi, Somayeh & Ntaimo, Lewis, 2016. "A stochastic optimization approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from buildings and transportation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 367-377.
    10. Li, Y.Z. & Wu, Q.H. & Li, M.S. & Zhan, J.P., 2014. "Mean-variance model for power system economic dispatch with wind power integrated," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 510-520.
    11. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Meunier, Guy & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2018. "When starting with the most expensive option makes sense: Optimal timing, cost and sectoral allocation of abatement investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 210-233.
    12. Koo, Choongwan & Kim, Hyunjoong & Hong, Taehoon, 2014. "Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 356-367.
    13. Guo, Jian-Xin & Huang, Chen, 2020. "Feasible roadmap for CCS retrofit of coal-based power plants to reduce Chinese carbon emissions by 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2015. "Gains from emission trading under multiple stabilization targets and technological constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 306-315.
    15. Yu, Hao & Wei, Yi-Ming & Tang, Bao-Jun & Mi, Zhifu & Pan, Su-Yan, 2016. "Assessment on the research trend of low-carbon energy technology investment: A bibliometric analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 960-970.
    16. Coram, Alex & Katzner, Donald W., 2018. "Reducing fossil-fuel emissions: Dynamic paths for alternative energy-producing technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 179-189.
    17. Gatzert, Nadine & Kosub, Thomas, 2016. "Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 982-998.
    18. Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
    19. Sinha, Rakesh Kumar & Chaturvedi, Nitin Dutt, 2019. "A review on carbon emission reduction in industries and planning emission limits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Wu, Jung-Hua, 2008. "A portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-641, February.
    21. Nunes, L.J.R. & Causer, T.P. & Ciolkosz, D., 2020. "Biomass for energy: A review on supply chain management models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    22. Albert Madansky, 1960. "Inequalities for Stochastic Linear Programming Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 197-204, January.
    23. Zhang, Yiyi & Wang, Jiaqi & Zhang, Linmei & Liu, Jiefeng & Zheng, Hanbo & Fang, Jiake & Hou, Shengren & Chen, Shaoqing, 2020. "Optimization of China’s electric power sector targeting water stress and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    24. Arnold, Uwe & Yildiz, Özgür, 2015. "Economic risk analysis of decentralized renewable energy infrastructures – A Monte Carlo Simulation approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 227-239.
    25. Moreaux, Michel & Withagen, Cees, 2015. "Optimal abatement of carbon emission flows," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 55-70.
    26. Klimenko, V.V. & Ratner, S.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2021. "Constraints imposed by key-material resources on renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    27. Cristóbal, Jorge & Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo & Kraslawski, Andrzej & Irabien, Angel, 2013. "Stochastic MILP model for optimal timing of investments in CO2 capture technologies under uncertainty in prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 343-351.
    28. Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Ma, Ding, 2014. "A bottom-up analysis of China’s iron and steel industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1174-1183.
    29. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana, 2010. "Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(9), pages 2938-2944, September.
    30. Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Yu & Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, James A., 2018. "Roles of wind and solar energy in China’s power sector: Implications of intermittency constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 22-30.
    31. Jang, Yeonju & Park, Eunil, 2020. "Social acceptance of nuclear power plants in Korea: The role of public perceptions following the Fukushima accident," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    32. Su, Xuanming & Zhou, Weisheng & Sun, Faming & Nakagami, Ken'Ichi, 2014. "Possible pathways for dealing with Japan's post-Fukushima challenge and achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 90-97.
    33. Ashina, Shuichi & Fujino, Junichi & Masui, Toshihiko & Ehara, Tomoki & Hibino, Go, 2012. "A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 584-598.
    34. Xia, Fang & Lu, Xi & Song, Feng, 2020. "The role of feed-in tariff in the curtailment of wind power in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    35. Olaleye, Olaitan & Baker, Erin, 2015. "Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-216.
    36. Spencer Wheatley & Benjamin Sovacool & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 99-115, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyi Shi & Xiaoxia Huang & Huifang Liu, 2022. "Research on the Structural Features and Influence Mechanism of the Low-Carbon Technology Cooperation Network Based on Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Tom Savage & Antonio del Rio Chanona & Gbemi Oluleye, 2023. "Robust Market Potential Assessment: Designing optimal policies for low-carbon technology adoption in an increasingly uncertain world," Papers 2304.10203, arXiv.org.
    3. Wei, Yigang & Li, Yan & Wang, Zhicheng, 2022. "Multiple price bubbles in global major emission trading schemes: Evidence from European Union, New Zealand, South Korea and China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    2. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    3. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.
    4. Sarah Hafner & Olivia James & Aled Jones, 2019. "A Scoping Review of Barriers to Investment in Climate Change Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Fitiwi, Desta Z. & de Cuadra, F. & Olmos, L. & Rivier, M., 2015. "A new approach of clustering operational states for power network expansion planning problems dealing with RES (renewable energy source) generation operational variability and uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1360-1376.
    7. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    8. Galina Chebotareva & Inna Čábelková & Wadim Strielkowski & Luboš Smutka & Anna Zielińska-Chmielewska & Stanislaw Bielski, 2023. "The Role of State in Managing the Wind Energy Projects: Risk Assessment and Justification of the Economic Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    10. Cai, Yanpeng & Cai, Jianying & Xu, Linyu & Tan, Qian & Xu, Qiao, 2019. "Integrated risk analysis of water-energy nexus systems based on systems dynamics, orthogonal design and copula analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 125-137.
    11. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2019. "The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Guo, Jian-Xin & Huang, Chen, 2020. "Feasible roadmap for CCS retrofit of coal-based power plants to reduce Chinese carbon emissions by 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    13. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore, 2011. "Planning future investments in emerging energy technologies for pulp mills considering different scenarios for their investment cost development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6508-6519.
    14. Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2020. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy∗," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. d'Amore, Federico & Bezzo, Fabrizio, 2017. "Managing technology performance risk in the strategic design of biomass-based supply chains for energy in the transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 563-574.
    16. Fitiwi, Desta Z. & Olmos, L. & Rivier, M. & de Cuadra, F. & Pérez-Arriaga, I.J., 2016. "Finding a representative network losses model for large-scale transmission expansion planning with renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 343-358.
    17. Guo, Jian-Xin & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Zhu, Kaiwei, 2022. "Integration of supply chain management of hybrid biomass power plant with carbon capture and storage operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1055-1065.
    18. Ziemba, Paweł, 2022. "Uncertain Multi-Criteria analysis of offshore wind farms projects investments – Case study of the Polish Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    19. Ilbahar, Esra & Kahraman, Cengiz & Cebi, Selcuk, 2022. "Risk assessment of renewable energy investments: A modified failure mode and effect analysis based on prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy AHP," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    20. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:172:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521004431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.