IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v66y2014icp90-97.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Possible pathways for dealing with Japan's post-Fukushima challenge and achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Su, Xuanming
  • Zhou, Weisheng
  • Sun, Faming
  • Nakagami, Ken'Ichi

Abstract

Considering the unclear nuclear future of Japan after Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident since Mar. 11, 2011, this study assesses a series of energy consumption scenarios including the reference scenario, nuclear limited scenarios and current nuclear use level scenario for Japan in 2030 by the G-CEEP (Glocal Century Energy Environment Planning) model. The simulation result for each scenario is firstly presented in terms of primary energy consumption, electricity generation, CO2 emission, marginal abatement cost and GDP (gross domestic product) loss. According to the results, energy saving contributes the biggest share in total CO2 emission reduction, regardless of different nuclear use levels and different CO2 emission reduction levels. A certain amount of coal generation can be retained in the nuclear limited scenarios due to the applying of CCS (carbon capture and storage). The discussion indicates that Japan needs to improve energy use efficiency, increase renewable energy and introduce CCS in order to reduce the dependence on nuclear power and to achieve CO2 emission reduction target in 2030. In addition, it is ambitious for Japan to achieve the zero nuclear scenario with 30% CO2 emission reduction which will cause a marginal abatement cost of 383 USD/tC and up to −2.54% GDP loss from the reference scenario. Dealing with the nuclear power issue, Japan is faced with a challenge as well as an opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Xuanming & Zhou, Weisheng & Sun, Faming & Nakagami, Ken'Ichi, 2014. "Possible pathways for dealing with Japan's post-Fukushima challenge and achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 90-97.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:90-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214001352
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffield, John S. & Woodall, Brian, 2011. "Japan's new basic energy plan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3741-3749, June.
    2. Zhang, Qi & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2012. "Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 376-385.
    3. Akimoto, Keigo & Tomoda, Toshimasa & Fujii, Yasumasa & Yamaji, Kenji, 2004. "Assessment of global warming mitigation options with integrated assessment model DNE21," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 635-653, July.
    4. Zhang, Qi & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N., 2012. "Economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion in Japan considering Fukushima nuclear accident using a multi-objective optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 986-995.
    5. Huenteler, Joern & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Kanie, Norichika, 2012. "Japan's post-Fukushima challenge – implications from the German experience on renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 6-11.
    6. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935.
    7. Șerban Georgescu, 2012. "Japan," Conjunctura economiei mondiale / World Economic Studies, Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy.
    8. Mori, Shunsuke, 2012. "An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 421-428.
    9. Esteban, Miguel & Zhang, Qi & Utama, Agya, 2012. "Estimation of the energy storage requirement of a future 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 22-31.
    10. Dittmar, Michael, 2012. "Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 35-40.
    11. Su, Xuanming & Zhou, Weisheng & Nakagami, Ken'Ichi & Ren, Hongbo & Mu, Hailin, 2012. "Capital stock-labor-energy substitution and production efficiency study for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1208-1213.
    12. Jean-Marc Burniaux & John P. Martin & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 1991. "GREEN - - A Multi-Region Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Quantifying the Costs of Curbing CO2 Emissions: A Technical Manual," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 104, OECD Publishing.
    13. Vivoda, Vlado, 2012. "Japan’s energy security predicament post-Fukushima," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 135-143.
    14. Lior, Noam, 2012. "Sustainable energy development: The present (2011) situation and possible paths to the future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 174-191.
    15. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198.
    16. Ashina, Shuichi & Fujino, Junichi & Masui, Toshihiko & Ehara, Tomoki & Hibino, Go, 2012. "A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 584-598.
    17. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1992. "Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026213280x, December.
    18. Homma, Takashi & Akimoto, Keigo, 2013. "Analysis of Japan's energy and environment strategy after the Fukushima nuclear plant accident," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1216-1225.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Jian-Xin & Zhu, Kaiwei & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe, 2021. "Low-carbon technology development under multiple adoption risks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Zhang, Ning & Hu, Zhaoguang & Shen, Bo & He, Gang & Zheng, Yanan, 2017. "An integrated source-grid-load planning model at the macro level: Case study for China's power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-246.
    3. Kuramochi, Takeshi & Wakiyama, Takako & Kuriyama, Akihisa, 2017. "Assessment of national greenhouse gas mitigation targets for 2030 through meta-analysis of bottom-up energy and emission scenarios: A case of Japan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 924-944.
    4. Xu, Zhongwen & Yao, Liming & Liu, Qiaoling & Long, Yin, 2019. "Policy implications for achieving the carbon emission reduction target by 2030 in Japan-Analysis based on a bilevel equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cherp, Aleh & Vinichenko, Vadim & Jewell, Jessica & Suzuki, Masahiro & Antal, Miklós, 2017. "Comparing electricity transitions: A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 612-628.
    2. Portugal Pereira, Joana & Troncoso Parady, Giancarlos & Castro Dominguez, Bernardo, 2014. "Japan's energy conundrum: Post-Fukushima scenarios from a life cycle perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 104-115.
    3. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia & Maïzi, Nadia, 2013. "Fukushima's impact on the European power sector: The key role of CCS technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-312.
    4. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana, 2014. "Post-disaster resilience of a 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 756-764.
    5. Wang, Ge & Zhang, Qi & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Li, Hailong, 2016. "Multi-region optimal deployment of renewable energy considering different interregional transmission scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 108-118.
    6. Alex Bowen & Emanuele Campiglio & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Perspective On Climate Change Mitigation: Meeting The Financing Challenge," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-35.
    7. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    8. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2014. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 62-75.
    9. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    10. Ziyi Wang & Zengqiao Chen & Cuiping Ma & Ronald Wennersten & Qie Sun, 2022. "Nationwide Evaluation of Urban Energy System Resilience in China Using a Comprehensive Index Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    11. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Krey, Volker & Grubler, Arnulf, 2016. "Representing spatial technology diffusion in an energy system optimization model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 350-363.
    12. Tamaki, Tetsuya & Nozawa, Wataru & Managi, Shunsuke, 2017. "Evaluation of the ocean ecosystem: Climate change modelling with backstop technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 428-439.
    13. Muñoz, Beatriz & García-Verdugo, Javier & San-Martín, Enrique, 2015. "Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 479-500.
    14. Fumihiko Matsubara, 2019. "The Landscape of Business Growth for Oil and Gas Upstream Companies: A case from Japan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 86-94.
    15. Ahmad, Ali & Ramana, M.V., 2014. "Too costly to matter: Economics of nuclear power for Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 682-694.
    16. Tamaki, Tetsuya & Nozawa, Wataru & Managi, Shunsuke, 2017. "Evaluation of the ocean ecosystem: climate change modelling with backstop technology," MPRA Paper 80549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Schinko, Thomas & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Steininger, Karl W. & Grossmann, Wolf D., 2014. "Switching to carbon-free production processes: Implications for carbon leakage and border carbon adjustment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 818-831.
    18. Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Ayami Hayashi & Takashi Homma & Junichiro Oda & Kenichi Wada & Miyuki Nagashima & Kohko Tokushige & Toshimasa Tomoda, 2012. "Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 231-244, November.
    19. Anne-Maree Dowd & Michelle Rodriguez & Talia Jeanneret, 2015. "Social Science Insights for the BioCCS Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-19, May.
    20. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:90-97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.