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A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050

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  • Ashina, Shuichi
  • Fujino, Junichi
  • Masui, Toshihiko
  • Ehara, Tomoki
  • Hibino, Go

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze feasibility and a roadmap of a low-carbon society in Japan by 2050, while satisfying required demands. Future technology roadmaps, CO2 emission pathways and energy mix transitions leading Japan are calculated using the AIM/Backcasting Model based on backcasting methodology with taking into consideration that one of the keys for technological market penetration is the preferences of consumers. Under the CO2 emission target of 80% reduction as compared to 1990 level by 2050, it is found from the results that the target is feasible in Japan by implementing actions toward low-carbon society as early as possible. From the perspective of minimizing the total costs, it would be best to target a reduction rate of 16–20% in 2020, 31–35% in 2030 and 53–56% in 2040 within the range of Scenarios A and B. During this process, major investment will be needed in the early stage of the analytical periods, especially in the residential, commercial and transport sectors. However, viewed in the long term, this can be recovered by reduction in energy consumption. Moreover, the analysis suggests that returns that balance the total investment may be possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashina, Shuichi & Fujino, Junichi & Masui, Toshihiko & Ehara, Tomoki & Hibino, Go, 2012. "A roadmap towards a low-carbon society in Japan using backcasting methodology: Feasible pathways for achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 584-598.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:584-598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. AlSabbagh & Y. L. Siu & A. Guehnemann & J. Barrett, 2017. "Mitigation of CO2 emissions from the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 99-119, January.
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    3. Mustapa, Siti Indati & Bekhet, Hussain Ali, 2016. "Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 171-183.
    4. Su, Xuanming & Zhou, Weisheng & Sun, Faming & Nakagami, Ken'Ichi, 2014. "Possible pathways for dealing with Japan's post-Fukushima challenge and achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 90-97.
    5. Thepkhun, Panida & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Shrestha, Ram M., 2013. "Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 561-572.
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    10. Taesik Yun & Younggook Kim & Jang-yeop Kim, 2017. "Feasibility Study of the Post-2020 Commitment to the Power Generation Sector in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Robertson, Elizabeth & O'Grady, Áine & Barton, John & Galloway, Stuart & Emmanuel-Yusuf, Damiete & Leach, Matthew & Hammond, Geoff & Thomson, Murray & Foxon, Tim, 2017. "Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: An iterative approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-306.
    12. Oshiro, Ken & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 215-225.
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    14. Phdungsilp, Aumnad & Wuttipornpun, Teeradej, 2013. "Analyses of the decarbonizing Thailand's energy system toward low-carbon futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 187-197.
    15. Olsson, Linda & Hjalmarsson, Linnea & Wikström, Martina & Larsson, Mårten, 2015. "Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 72-82.

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