Study on the impact of air pollution on health economy under the perspective of energy transition: A case of the Yangtze River Delta region in China

Under the green energy transition, health benefits from improved air quality can substantially offset transition costs. Therefore, evaluating environmental health co-benefits is crucial for optimizing transition pathways. However, existing studies often lack a quantitative assessment framework linking energy transitions to health economics, while overlooking regional disparities, sectoral heterogeneity, and refined scenario design. Accordingly, a novel multi-regional, multi-sector integrated assessment framework that connects energy transition strategies, air pollutant emissions, public health outcomes, and health-related economic benefits is developed. The framework builds on the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning platform, combined with the exposure-response principle and a benefit-shifting estimation method. Furthermore, incorporating multiple regression analysis, an auto-regressive integrated moving average model, and Gompertz functions, one baseline and four energy transition sub-scenarios are constructed, following which air quality improvements, public health benefits, and economic gains in the Yangtze River Delta region between 2020 and 2030 is evaluated. Key findings include: (1) the integrated energy transition scenario delivers significant primary PM2.5 emissions reductions, health co-benefits, and health economic benefits, with Jiangsu facing the largest health impacts; (2) Shanghai's transport sector contributes most, while the industrial and transport sectors dominate in other regions, and Anhui's living sector exhibits notable growth; (3) improving energy efficiency offers the greatest co-benefits, followed by transport optimization and industrial restructuring, while clean energy deployment shows significant effects in Jiangsu but limited impacts elsewhere. This study provides methodological insights and quantitative support for region-specific and sector-targeted energy transition policies that promote environmental and public health goals.