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Combining Energy Technology Dynamics and Macroeconometrics: The E3MG Model

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  • Jonathan Kohler, Terry Barker, Dennis Anderson and Haoran Pan

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel approach to the hybrid modelling of technological change climate stabilisation cost literature. We describe how a post-Keynesian macroeconomic model of sectoral demand, E3MG, has been combined with investments in 26 energy technologies from a submodel, ETM. E3MG is a 20-region global energy-environment-economy (E3) econometric, dynamic simulation model. It is a component of the UK Tyndall CenterÕs Community Integrated Assessment System. Technological change is endogenous, through its effects on general energy use and sectoral demand, and on energy technologies through the cost-reducing effects o f learning by doing and economies of scale. This approach directly challenges the notion that historically estimated models cannot be use for long-term analysis. The paper concludes with an account of how technological progress is induced in this hybrid system by high relative prices of carbon designed to achieve climate stabilization at 450ppmv.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Kohler, Terry Barker, Dennis Anderson and Haoran Pan, 2006. "Combining Energy Technology Dynamics and Macroeconometrics: The E3MG Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 113-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006se_jaccard-a06
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    Cited by:

    1. Hepburn, Cameron & Mealy, Penny, 2017. "Transformational Change: Parallels for addressing climate and development goals," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised May 2019.
    2. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    3. Susana Silva & Isabel Soares & Carlos Pinho, 2011. "The impact of renewable energy sources on economic growth and CO2 emissions - a SVAR approach," FEP Working Papers 407, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Detlef P. van Vuuren & Morna Isaac & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Elke Stehfest & Jasper van Vliet, 2010. "Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1_suppl), pages 165-192, June.
    5. Susana Silva & Isabel Soares & Óscar Afonso, 2010. "E3 Models Revisited," FEP Working Papers 393, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Ciarli, Tommaso & Savona, Maria, 2019. "Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 51-64.
    7. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2009. "The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market," Working Papers hal-00866429, HAL.
    8. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:133-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Susana Silva & Isabel Soares & Carlos Pinho, 2012. "The Impact of Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions - a SVAR approach," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 133-144.
    10. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    11. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    12. Teng, Fei & Zhang, Qi & Chen, Siyuan & Wang, Ge & Huang, Zhenyue & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Comprehensive effects of policy mixes on the diffusion of heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks in China considering technology learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    13. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2011. "A structural VAR analysis of renewable energy consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions: Evidence from India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1793-1806.
    14. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2011. "The costs of climate policies in a second-best world with labour market imperfections," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 768-788, January.
    15. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2013. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 469-483.
    16. Jacques Després & Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima & Nouredine Hadjsaid & Isabelle Noirot, 2014. "Variable renewable energies and storage development in long term energy modelling tools," Post-Print hal-01279467, HAL.
    17. Mercure, Jean-François, 2012. "FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 799-811.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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