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Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective

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  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Morna Isaac
  • Michel G.J. den Elzen
  • Elke Stehfest
  • Jasper van Vliet

Abstract

In order to limit global mean temperature increase to less than 2°C, long-term greenhouse gas concentrations must remain low. This paper discusses how such low concentrations can be reached, based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework (including TIMER and FAIR). We show that the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentration targets, in particular 450 and 400 ppm CO2 equivalent critically depends on model assumptions, such as bio-energy potentials. Under standard model assumptions, these targets can be reached, although the lowest requires the use of bio-energy in combination with carbon-capture-and-storage. Regions are affected differently by ambitious climate policies in terms of energy and land use, although stringent emission reductions will be required in all regions. Resulting co-benefits of climate policy (such as energy security and air pollution) are also different across world regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren & Morna Isaac & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Elke Stehfest & Jasper van Vliet, 2010. "Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1_suppl), pages 165-192, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:31:y:2010:i:1_suppl:p:165-192
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Kohler, Terry Barker, Dennis Anderson and Haoran Pan, 2006. "Combining Energy Technology Dynamics and Macroeconometrics: The E3MG Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 113-134.
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