IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/respol/v52y2023i1s0048733322001780.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The quality of innovation “Booms” during “Busts”

Author

Listed:
  • Makridis, Christos A.
  • McGuire, Erin

Abstract

Models of creative destruction assume that recessions are periods of reallocation and disruption, generating new ideas that catapult new firms to the frontier. However, current empirical evidence suggests that research and development (R&D) expenditures and patenting are procyclical, not countercyclical. In this paper, we introduce new insights to enrich this debate. First, using panel data on the quality of innovation between 1980 and 2019, we document that the quality of innovation is countercyclical: Innovations produced during busts have a larger effect on the path of future research than those developed during booms. Second, we investigate several additional patterns on the composition of R&D. We find that the procyclicality of R&D is concentrated among firms that are more financially constrained, and that time allocated towards basic science (applied) research is countercyclical (procyclical). These results highlight the importance of composition effects among not only the organizations that contribute to innovation over the business cycle, but also the tasks that employees within these organizations perform.

Suggested Citation

  • Makridis, Christos A. & McGuire, Erin, 2023. "The quality of innovation “Booms” during “Busts”," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:52:y:2023:i:1:s0048733322001780
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2022.104657
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733322001780
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.respol.2022.104657?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen & Heidi Williams, 2019. "A toolkit of policies to promote innovation," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
    5. Bryan Kelly & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Amit Seru & Matt Taddy, 2021. "Measuring Technological Innovation over the Long Run," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 303-320, September.
    6. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    7. Brad Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1737-1772, July.
    8. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    9. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Amit Seru & Noah Stoffman, 2017. "Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 665-712.
    11. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    12. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2010. "Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 45-86, February.
    13. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    14. David H. Autor & Michael J. Handel, 2013. "Putting Tasks to the Test: Human Capital, Job Tasks, and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 59-96.
    15. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-1190, December.
    16. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    17. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    18. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    19. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilberte Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2012. "Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from Micro Panel data," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754573, HAL.
    20. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    21. Gerard Hoberg & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2015. "Redefining Financial Constraints: A Text-Based Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1312-1352.
    22. Scott Stern, 2004. "Do Scientists Pay to Be Scientists?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(6), pages 835-853, June.
    23. Makridis, Christos A., 2021. "(Why) Is There a Public/Private Pay Gap?," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C).
    24. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2012. "Credit Constraints And The Cyclicality Of R&D Investment: Evidence From France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1001-1024, October.
    25. Lybbert, Travis J. & Zolas, Nikolas J., 2014. "Getting patents and economic data to speak to each other: An ‘Algorithmic Links with Probabilities’ approach for joint analyses of patenting and economic activity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 530-542.
    26. Erik Canton & Harald Uhlig, 1999. "Growth and the cycle: Creative destruction versus entrenchment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 239-266, October.
    27. Jung, Jiwon & Bozeman, Barry & Gaughan, Monica, 2017. "Impact of research collaboration cosmopolitanism on job satisfaction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1863-1872.
    28. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-653, September.
    29. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    30. L. Kamran Bilir, 2014. "Patent Laws, Product Life-Cycle Lengths, and Multinational Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1979-2013, July.
    31. repec:use:tkiwps:1818 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. M. Sanders & J.W.B. Bos & C. Economidou, 2007. "R&D over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 07-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
    33. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "On the Cyclicality of Research and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1131-1164, September.
    34. Arthur E. Burns, 1934. "Some Theoretic Bases of the Economic State," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 174(1), pages 173-178, July.
    35. Roach, Michael & Sauermann, Henry, 2010. "A taste for science? PhD scientists' academic orientation and self-selection into research careers in industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 422-434, April.
    36. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
    37. Jeffrey Kuhn & Kenneth Younge & Alan Marco, 2020. "Patent citations reexamined," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(1), pages 109-132, March.
    38. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    39. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 322-344, September.
    40. Younge, Kenneth A. & Tong, Tony W., 2018. "Competitive pressure on the rate and scope of innovation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 162-181.
    41. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    42. Geroski, P A & Walters, C F, 1995. "Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 916-928, July.
    43. Min Ouyang, 2011. "On the Cyclicality of R&D," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 542-553, May.
    44. Catalina Martínez, 2011. "Patent families: When do different definitions really matter?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 86(1), pages 39-63, January.
    45. Kira R. Fabrizio & Ulya Tsolmon, 2014. "An Empirical Examination of the Procyclicality of R&D Investment and Innovation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 662-675, October.
    46. Bozeman, Barry, 2000. "Technology transfer and public policy: a review of research and theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 627-655, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silvestri, Daniela & Riccaboni, Massimo & Della Malva, Antonio, 2018. "Sailing in all winds: Technological search over the business cycle," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(10), pages 1933-1944.
    2. Bernhard Dachs & Martin Hud & Christian Köhler & Bettina Peters, 2016. "Employment Effects of Innovations over the Business Cycle: Firm-Level Evidence from European Countries," DEM Discussion Paper Series 16-20, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    3. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Vukoti, Marija & Zubairy, Sarah, 2023. "Innovation During Challenging Times," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1475, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Ahmad, Manzoor, 2021. "Non-linear dynamics of innovation activities over the business cycles: Empirical evidence from OECD economies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Juliana Yu Sun & Huanhuan Zheng, 2024. "Cross‐border technology investments in recession," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 297-330, February.
    6. Pellens, Maikel & Peters, Bettina & Hud, Martin & Rammer, Christian & Licht, Georg, 2018. "Public investment in R&D in reaction to economic crises: A longitudinal study for OECD countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-005, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Hud, Martin & Rammer, Christian, 2015. "Innovation budgeting over the business cycle and innovation performance," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Kopytov, Alexandr & Roussanov, Nikolai & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2018. "Short-run pain, long-run gain? Recessions and technological transformation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 29-44.
    9. García-Vega, María & Gupta, Apoorva & Kneller, Richard, 2023. "Is acquisition-FDI during an economic crisis detrimental for domestic innovation?," DICE Discussion Papers 403, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    10. Hud, Martin & Hussinger, Katrin, 2015. "The impact of R&D subsidies during the crisis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1844-1855.
    11. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Makridis, Christos A., 2018. "Structural transformation and the rise of information technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 91-110.
    12. Artuç, Erhan & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2014. "R&D and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 54-71.
    13. Christian Rammer, 2011. "Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftskrise auf die Innovationstätigkeit der Unternehmen in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(3), pages 13-34.
    14. Aysun, Uluc, 2020. "Volatility costs of R&D," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Dolores Añón Higón & Miguel Manjón & Juan A. Máñez & Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis, 2014. "Does R&D Protect Smes From The Hardness Of The Cycle? Evidence From Spanish Smes (1990-2009)," Working Papers 1411, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    16. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    17. Artuç, Erhan & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2014. "R&D and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 54-71.
    18. Hans van Ophem & Noud van Giersbergen & Kees Jan van Garderen & Maurice Bun, 2019. "The cyclicality of R&D investment revisited," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 315-324, March.
    19. Barth, Erling & Davis, James C. & Freeman, Richard B. & McElheran, Kristina, 2023. "Twisting the demand curve: Digitalization and the older workforce," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 443-467.
    20. Maarten de Ridder, 2022. "Market power and innovation in the intangible economy," POID Working Papers 064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Financial constraints; Innovation; Patenting; Research and development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:52:y:2023:i:1:s0048733322001780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.