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The cyclicality of R&D investment revisited

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  • Hans van Ophem
  • Noud van Giersbergen
  • Kees Jan van Garderen
  • Maurice Bun

Abstract

In Fabrizio and Tsolmon (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2014, 96(4), 662–675) and Barlevy (American Economic Review, 2007, 97(4), 1131–1164) it was concluded that R&D investments are procyclical. Fabrizio and Tsolmon utilized a model based on Barlevy, but it differed in some respects and allowed for more heterogeneity. However, we doubt whether their implied trends are intended. Fabrizio and Tsolmon also set missing values for R&D equal to zero, leading to unrealistic jumps in investment and its first differences. We reconcile and replicate both the Fabrizio and Tsolmon and Barlevy papers by considering extensions that encompass both models. Furthermore, we treat missing values more appropriately and consider some alternative specifications to check the robustness of the results. Procyclicality is confirmed, but we find much less heterogeneity than Fabrizio and Tsolmon did. In particular, obsolescence and patent effectiveness are no longer important but external financing is.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans van Ophem & Noud van Giersbergen & Kees Jan van Garderen & Maurice Bun, 2019. "The cyclicality of R&D investment revisited," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 315-324, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:2:p:315-324
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2667
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    Cited by:

    1. Cefis, Elena & Coad, Alex & Lucini-Paioni, Alessandro, 2023. "Landmarks as lighthouses: firms' innovation and modes of exit during the business cycle," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    2. Ahmad, Manzoor, 2021. "Non-linear dynamics of innovation activities over the business cycles: Empirical evidence from OECD economies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Oguzhan Akgun & Ryo Okui, 2025. "Robust Inference Methods for Latent Group Panel Models under Possible Group Non-Separation," Papers 2511.18550, arXiv.org.
    4. Díaz, Guillermo Arenas & Barge-Gil, Andrés & Heijs, Joost, 2020. "The effect of innovation on skilled and unskilled workers during bad times," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 141-158.

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