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Estimating the impact of wind generation and wind forecast errors on energy prices and costs in Ireland

Listed author(s):
  • Swinand, Gregory P.
  • O'Mahoney, Amy

This paper studies the impact of wind generation on system costs and prices in Ireland. The importance of wind power and potential impacts on system costs is of interest to power system planners and policy makers globally. However, the impact of wind generation on system costs has been only studied with limited actual data from power systems with increased wind penetration. The paper uses a unique dataset of half-hourly system demand, generation, forecast and actual wind generation, along with Irish system marginal price (SMP) data from 2008 to autumn 2012. An econometric time-series model of SMP as a function of forecast and realized demand and wind generation yields results which suggest that each 1% increase in wind generation reduces SMP in Ireland by about 0.06%, while each 1% wind forecast error increases SMP about 0.02%. In absolute terms, though, at the mean the impact of wind forecast errors is small, or about 0.4€cent/MWh-wind generated.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148114006314
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Renewable Energy.

Volume (Year): 75 (2015)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 468-473

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Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:75:y:2015:i:c:p:468-473
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.060
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy

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  1. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2014. "The incentive to invest in thermal plants in the presence of wind generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 306-315.
  2. O'Mahoney, Amy & Denny, Eleanor, 2013. "Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 628-637.
  3. Felder, Frank A., 2011. "Examining Electricity Price Suppression Due to Renewable Resources and Other Grid Investments," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 34-46, May.
  4. Troy, Niamh & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2010. "Base-load cycling on a system with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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