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The Incentive to Invest in Thermal Plants in the Presence of Wind Generation

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  • di Cosmo, Valeria
  • Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura

Abstract

In a deregulated market, the decision to build new thermal power plants rests with private investors and they will decide whether to invest on the basis of expected profits. This paper evaluates how such profits are affected by the increasing presence of wind generation. We use hourly historical data for the Irish Single Electricity Market, a compulsory pool market with capacity payments, and simulate future series of electricity shadow prices, bids of representative plants and wind generation. We estimate the correlation between shadow price and installed wind capacity on the basis of past data, finding a negative correlation. We then evaluate the effects of increased wind capacity on thermal power plants' expected profits. We find that increasing installed wind from the current level of 2000MW to about 3000MW causes a larger decrease in profits for baseload gas plants and a smaller decrease for less flexible coal-fuelled plants. The decrease in profits is of the order of 1 to 2 per cent.

Suggested Citation

  • di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2012. "The Incentive to Invest in Thermal Plants in the Presence of Wind Generation," Papers WP446, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp446
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    1. repec:aen:journl:eeep4_1_valeri is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul Deane, John FitzGerald, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, Aidan Tuohy and Darragh Walsh, 2015. "Irish and British electricity prices: what recent history implies for future prices," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    3. Swinand, Gregory P. & O'Mahoney, Amy, 2015. "Estimating the impact of wind generation and wind forecast errors on energy prices and costs in Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 468-473.
    4. Lynch, Muireann Á. & Longoria, Genora & Curtis, John, 2021. "Future market design options for electricity markets with high RES-E: lessons from the Irish Single Electricity Market," Papers WP702, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Doda, Baran & Fankhauser, Sam, 2020. "Climate policy and power producers: The distribution of pain and gain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2018. "Wind, storage, interconnection and the cost of electricity generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    8. Walsh, Darragh & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Di Cosmo, Valeria, 2016. "Strategic bidding, wind ownership and regulation in a decentralised electricity market," MPRA Paper 71502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
    10. Denny, Eleanor & O'Mahoney, Amy & Lannoye, Eamonn, 2017. "Modelling the impact of wind generation on electricity market prices in Ireland: An econometric versus unit commitment approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 109-119.
    11. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 487-496.
    12. Lynch, Muireann & Longoria, Genaro & Curtis, John, 2021. "Market design options for electricity markets with high variable renewable generation," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Deane, Paul & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan & Walsh, Darragh, 2013. "Irish and British Historical Electricity Prices and Implications for the Future," Papers WP452, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, August.
    15. Simla, Tomasz & Stanek, Wojciech, 2020. "Influence of the wind energy sector on thermal power plants in the Polish energy system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 928-938.
    16. Doda, Baran & Fankhauser, Samuel, 2020. "Climate policy and power producers: the distribution of pain and gain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102960, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    data/electricity/wind generation;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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