IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v43y2014icp306-315.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The incentive to invest in thermal plants in the presence of wind generation

Author

Listed:
  • Di Cosmo, Valeria
  • Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura

Abstract

In a deregulated market, the decision to add generation rests with private investors. This paper evaluates how generator profits are affected by increasing wind generation. Using hourly historical data for the Irish Single Electricity Market, we simulate new series of electricity prices, representative plant bids and wind generation. We calibrate the model based on the negative correlation between electricity prices and wind generation. This allows us to determine that increasing wind generation induces lower profits for all baseload plants. Additionally, it decreases profits for baseload natural gas plants more than for less flexible coal-fuelled plants, which might encourage investment in less flexible plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2014. "The incentive to invest in thermal plants in the presence of wind generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 306-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:306-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988314000565
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F. Baum & Richard Sperling, 2001. "Tests for stationarity of a time series: update," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(58).
    2. Newbery, David, 2010. "Market design for a large share of wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3131-3134, July.
    3. Weisser, D, 2003. "A wind energy analysis of Grenada: an estimation using the ‘Weibull’ density function," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 1803-1812.
    4. Alfredo Garcia & Juan Alzate & Jorge Barrera, 2012. "Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 315-336, June.
    5. Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "The impact of carbon prices on generation-cycling costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1204-1212, April.
    6. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Damiano Brigo & Antonio Dalessandro & Matthias Neugebauer & Fares Triki, 2008. "A Stochastic Processes Toolkit for Risk Management," Papers 0812.4210, arXiv.org.
    9. Gorecki, Paul K., 2011. "The Internal EU Electricity Market: Implications for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS23.
    10. Christopher F. Baum, 2001. "Tests for stationarity of a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57).
    11. Devitt, Conor & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2011. "The Effect of REFIT on Irish Electricity Prices," Papers WP374, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Steggals, Will & Gross, Robert & Heptonstall, Philip, 2011. "Winds of change: How high wind penetrations will affect investment incentives in the GB electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1389-1396, March.
    13. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
    14. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.
    15. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601, June.
    16. Troy, Niamh & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2010. "Base-load cycling on a system with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ignacio J. Perez-Arriaga & Carlos Batlle, 2012. "Impacts of Intermittent Renewables on Electricity Generation System Operation," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    18. Conor Devitt & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, 2011. "The Effect of REFIT on Irish Wholesale Electricity Prices," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(3), pages 343-369.
    19. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.
    20. Möller, Christoph & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Balancing energy strategies in electricity portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 2-11, January.
    21. Frank A. Wolak, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Cost Functions Using Observed Bid Data: An Application to Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 8191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Gross, Robert & Blyth, William & Heptonstall, Philip, 2010. "Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: Why policy needs to look beyond costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 796-804, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Deane, John FitzGerald, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, Aidan Tuohy and Darragh Walsh, 2015. "Irish and British electricity prices: what recent history implies for future prices," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    2. Doda, Baran & Fankhauser, Sam, 2020. "Climate policy and power producers: The distribution of pain and gain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
    4. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura.
    5. repec:aen:journl:eeep4_1_valeri is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Denny, Eleanor & O'Mahoney, Amy & Lannoye, Eamonn, 2017. "Modelling the impact of wind generation on electricity market prices in Ireland: An econometric versus unit commitment approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 109-119.
    7. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2018. "Wind, storage, interconnection and the cost of electricity generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Doda, Baran & Fankhauser, Samuel, 2020. "Climate policy and power producers: the distribution of pain and gain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102960, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Swinand, Gregory P. & O'Mahoney, Amy, 2015. "Estimating the impact of wind generation and wind forecast errors on energy prices and costs in Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 468-473.
    10. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    11. Walsh, Darragh & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Di Cosmo, Valeria, 2016. "Strategic bidding, wind ownership and regulation in a decentralised electricity market," MPRA Paper 71502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 487-496.
    13. Deane, Paul & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan & Walsh, Darragh, 2013. "Irish and British Historical Electricity Prices and Implications for the Future," Papers WP452, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Valeria Di Cosmo & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, 2016. "Wind, storage, interconnection and the cost of electricity," Working Papers 2016/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; Generation incentives; Simulation; Wind generation; Ireland;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:306-315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.