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Operating reserve demand curve, scarcity pricing and intermittent generation: Lessons from the Texas ERCOT experience

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  • Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl

Abstract

Resolving the resource adequacy problem has been usually entrusted to the imposition of some kind of long-term capacity requirements or to forward markets. The Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC), which is linked to short-term market conditions and does not require central planning, has been presented as an alternative system with which to ensure long-term resource adequacy in the market. Using hourly data from the Texas ERCOT market between January 2015 and February 2019, we empirically show that ORDC prices are significantly negatively affected by wind generation. We find that, if wind generation is relatively low, a 1% increase in wind generation decreases the ORDC price by around 0.15–0.1%. This fact may preclude the ORDC from providing long-term price signals and price stability to generators. Moreover, we also find that if wind generation is greater than 9000 MW, the ORDC price is expected to be zero, which may further disincentive to increase generation capacity –especially dispatchable capacity that may be needed as a backup if the wind is not blowing.

Suggested Citation

  • Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2021. "Operating reserve demand curve, scarcity pricing and intermittent generation: Lessons from the Texas ERCOT experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s0301421520307680
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112057
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    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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