A study of expert overconfidence
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.014
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Citations
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Cited by:
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- James K. Hammitt & Yifan Zhang, 2013.
"Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data,"
Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, January.
- Hammitt, James K. & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods using Synthetic Data," TSE Working Papers 12-293, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
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- Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye, 2013. "Combining Experts: Decomposition and Aggregation Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1116-1127, June.
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- Das Sourish & Yang Hongxia & Banks David, 2012. "Synthetic Priors that Merge Opinion from Multiple Experts," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, December.
- Barker, Kash & Haimes, Yacov Y., 2009. "Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 819-829.
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- Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "There is Data, and then there is Data: Only Experimental Evidence will Determine the Utility of Differential Weighting of Expert Judgment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 21-26, January.
- Cooke, Roger M., 2014. "Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change," RFF Working Paper Series dp-14-11, Resources for the Future.
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- Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Diaz Anadon, Laura & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future Costs of Key Low-Carbon Energy Technologies: Harmonization and Aggregation of Energy Technology Expert Elicitation Data," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 204890, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Laura Diaz Anadon & Max Henrion & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Future Costs of Key Low-Carbon Energy Technologies: Harmonization and Aggregation of Energy Technology Expert Elicitation Data," Working Papers 2015.45, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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- Roger M. Cooke, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 12-15, January.
- Hanea, D.M. & Jagtman, H.M. & van Alphen, L.L.M.M. & Ale, B.J.M., 2010. "Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 729-741.
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- Hathout, Michel & Vuillet, Marc & Carvajal, Claudio & Peyras, Laurent & Diab, Youssef, 2019. "Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 377-392.
- Sulian Wang & Chen Wang, 2021. "Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 78-99, March.
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Keywords
Expert opinion; Calibration; Overconfidence; Expert aggregation;All these keywords.
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