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Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment

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  • Brenner, Lyle
  • Griffin, Dale
  • Koehler, Derek J.

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  • Brenner, Lyle & Griffin, Dale & Koehler, Derek J., 2005. "Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 64-81, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:97:y:2005:i:1:p:64-81
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    1. Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
    2. Cosmides, Leda & Tooby, John, 1994. "Better than Rational: Evolutionary Psychology and the Invisible Hand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 327-332, May.
    3. Bjorkman, Mats, 1994. "Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 386-405, June.
    4. Koehler, Derek J., 1996. "A Strength Model of Probability Judgments for Tournaments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 16-21, April.
    5. Soll, Jack B., 1996. "Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 117-137, February.
    6. Keren, Gideon, 1987. "Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-114, February.
    7. Thomas S. Wallsten & David V. Budescu, 1983. "State of the Art---Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 151-173, February.
    8. Brenner, Lyle A., 2003. "A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 87-110, January.
    9. Craig R. Fox & Amos Tversky, 1998. "A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(7), pages 879-895, July.
    10. Juslin, Peter, 1994. "The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-246, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Larrick, Richard P. & Burson, Katherine A. & Soll, Jack B., 2007. "Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 76-94, January.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:25-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
    4. Andreas Glöckner & Stephan Dickert, 2008. "Base-rate Respect by Intuition: Approximating Rational Choices in Base-rate Tasks with Multiple Cues," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_49, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    5. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
    6. Matthias Meyer & Cathérine Grisar & Felix Kuhnert, 2011. "The impact of biases on simulation-based risk aggregation: modeling cognitive influences on risk assessment," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 79-105, September.
    7. Lyle A. Brenner & Dale W. Griffin & Derek J. Koehler, 2012. "A Case-Based Model of Probability and Pricing Judgments: Biases in Buying and Selling Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 159-178, January.
    8. Kausel, Edgar E. & Culbertson, Satoris S. & Madrid, Hector P., 2016. "Overconfidence in personnel selection: When and why unstructured interview information can hurt hiring decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 27-44.
    9. Daniel J. Walters & Philip M. Fernbach & Craig R. Fox & Steven A. Sloman, 2017. "Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4298-4307, December.
    10. Joseph B. Kadane & Baruch Fischhoff, 2013. "A cautionary note on global recalibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(1), pages 25-28, January.

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