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Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks

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  • Juslin, Peter
  • Winman, Anders
  • Olsson, Henrik

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  • Juslin, Peter & Winman, Anders & Olsson, Henrik, 2003. "Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 34-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:92:y:2003:i:1-2:p:34-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pfeifer, Phillip E., 1994. "Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability Forecasters Are Overconfident?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 203-213, May.
    2. Dawes, Robyn M. & Mulford, Matthew, 1996. "The False Consensus Effect and Overconfidence: Flaws in Judgment or Flaws in How We Study Judgment?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 201-211, March.
    3. Juslin, Peter & Olsson, Henrik & Winman, Anders, 1998. "The Calibration Issue: Theoretical Comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 3-26, January.
    4. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    5. Bjorkman, Mats, 1994. "Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 386-405, June.
    6. Juslin, Peter, 1994. "The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-246, February.
    7. Soll, Jack B., 1996. "Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 117-137, February.
    8. Block, Richard A. & Harper, David R., 1991. "Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 188-207, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olsson, Henrik, 2014. "Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1766-1770.

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