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Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability Forecasters Are Overconfident?

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  • Pfeifer, Phillip E.

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  • Pfeifer, Phillip E., 1994. "Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability Forecasters Are Overconfident?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 203-213, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:58:y:1994:i:2:p:203-213
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    Cited by:

    1. Yates, J. Frank & Lee, Ju-Whei & Bush, Julie G G., 1997. "General Knowledge Overconfidence: Cross-National Variations, Response Style, and "Reality"," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 87-94, May.
    2. Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
    3. Olsson, Henrik, 2014. "Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1766-1770.
    4. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr. & Robert L. Winkler, 2007. "Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1745-1755, November.
    5. Richard D. Johnson & George M. Marakas, 2000. "Research Report: The Role of Behavioral Modeling in Computer Skills Acquisition: Toward Refinement of the Model," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 402-417, December.
    6. Juslin, Peter & Olsson, Henrik & Winman, Anders, 1998. "The Calibration Issue: Theoretical Comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 3-26, January.
    7. Juslin, Peter & Winman, Anders & Olsson, Henrik, 2003. "Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 34-51.
    8. Brenner, Lyle A., 2003. "A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 87-110, January.

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