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Time-variation in the persistence of carbon price uncertainty: The role of carbon policy uncertainty

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  • Cepni, Oguzhan
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Polat, Onur

Abstract

We estimate models of fractional integration to determine the degree of persistence for two recently developed metrics of carbon price uncertainty: the Carbon VIX and Carbon Implied Volatility (CIV) covering the period of the 1st week of September 2013 to the 4th week of December 2022. First, we find the two metrics to be highly persistent but depicting mean-reversion with long-memory. Second, time-varying (recursive) estimation revealed that the underlying persistence is on a downward trend. Third, we show that the recent reduction in persistence of carbon price uncertainties is a result of declining carbon policy uncertainty — a metric we develop using aggregate information on squared surprises of carbon futures price of various maturities. Given that carbon price uncertainty has been shown to negatively affect decarbonization investments, our findings have important implications for the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS).

Suggested Citation

  • Cepni, Oguzhan & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Polat, Onur, 2025. "Time-variation in the persistence of carbon price uncertainty: The role of carbon policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:102:y:2025:i:c:s1062976925000456
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon price uncertainty; Fractional integration; Persistence; Regulatory events; Carbon policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

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