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The electoral consequences of environmental accidents: Evidence from Chernobyl

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  • Mehic, Adrian

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between environmental accidents and voting. Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties entered parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the environmentalist Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Detailed individual-level survey data suggests that resistance to nuclear energy increased in fallout-effected areas after the accident, and that this change was driven by voters who followed local media closely.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehic, Adrian, 2023. "The electoral consequences of environmental accidents: Evidence from Chernobyl," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:225:y:2023:i:c:s0047272723001469
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104964
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    4. Chi-Young Choi & Ilan Noy & Ashish Sedai, 2025. "Natural Disasters and Electoral Consequences - Evidence for Voter Participation and Choice in U.S. Presidential Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 12298, CESifo.
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    7. Mehic, Adrian, 2026. "Inventing Green: Environmental Shocks and the Long-Term Reorientation of Innovation," Working Paper Series 1552, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Ge, Run & Huang, Jialin & Shi, Xinzheng, 2025. "Cleaner water and higher housing prices: Evidence from China☆," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    9. Duha T. Altindag & Reem El Cheikh Taha & Jennifer U. Jones & R. Alan Seals, 2026. "Local labor market effects of nuclear power plants," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), March.
    10. Ai, Jingyi & Feng, Jin & Zhang, Xiaohan, 2024. "Long-term care insurance coverage and labor force participation of older people: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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