IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v419y2015icp215-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An alternative way to track the hot money in turbulent times

Author

Listed:
  • Sensoy, Ahmet

Abstract

During recent years, networks have proven to be an efficient way to characterize and investigate a wide range of complex financial systems. In this study, we first obtain the dynamic conditional correlations between filtered exchange rates (against US dollar) of several countries and introduce a time-varying threshold correlation level to define dynamic strong correlations between these exchange rates. Then, using evolving networks obtained from strong correlations, we propose an alternative approach to track the hot money in turbulent times. The approach is demonstrated for the time period including the financial turmoil of 2008. Other applications are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sensoy, Ahmet, 2015. "An alternative way to track the hot money in turbulent times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 215-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:419:y:2015:i:c:p:215-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.10.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437114008486
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2014.10.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    2. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    3. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
    4. Broto, Carmen & Díaz-Cassou, Javier & Erce, Aitor, 2011. "Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows to emerging countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1941-1953, August.
    5. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Erratum [Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies]," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), October.
    6. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    7. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    8. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    9. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1999. "Lessons From East Asia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 311-330, May.
    12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    14. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2013. "Capital flows and real exchange rates in emerging Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-146.
    15. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
    16. Robin Brooks & Hali Edison & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 511-533, September.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Contagion and Convergence: An Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 55-86, November.
    18. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Bernd Rosenow & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Universal and non-universal properties of cross-correlations in financial time series," Papers cond-mat/9902283, arXiv.org.
    19. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    20. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laux, Paul A., 2009. "Portfolio flows, volatility and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-292, March.
    21. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    22. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/228, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Ibrahim Nor & Tajul Ariffin Masron & Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah, 2020. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Exchange Rate Volatility: Empirical Evidence From Somalia," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    2. Janani Sri S. & Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2022. "Can Equity be Safe-haven for Investment?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 32-63, March.
    3. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    5. Carvalho Filho Irineu de, 2015. "Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 439-463, December.
    6. Alderighi, Stefano & Cleary, Siobhan & Varanasi, Padmasai, 2019. "Do institutional factors influence cross-border portfolio equity flows? New evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Sato, Ayano & Nakata, Hayato & Percy, Jay, 2024. "Time-variant safe haven currencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 316-328.
    9. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2019. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Real exchange rates, trade balance and capital flows in Africa," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 22-46.
    12. Mollick, André Varella & Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Exchange rates, oil prices and world stock returns," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 585-602.
    13. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2012. "The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows: Evidence from Africa's capital markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    14. Alderighi, Stefano & Cleary, Siobhan & Varanasi, Padmasai, 2018. "The determinants of cross-border portfolio equity flows: new evidence from emerging markets," Economics Discussion Papers 23310, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Beirne, John & Sugandi, Eric, 2023. "Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laux, Paul A., 2009. "Portfolio flows, volatility and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-292, March.
    17. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2019. "Time-Variant Safe-Haven Currency Status and Determinants," Discussion papers 19048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Tachibana, Minoru, 2018. "Safe-haven and hedge currencies for the US, UK, and Euro area stock markets: A copula-based approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 82-96.
    19. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    20. Kim, Young Min & Lee, Seojin, 2023. "Spillover shifts in the FX market: Implication for the behavior of a safe haven currency," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:419:y:2015:i:c:p:215-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.