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Ambiguity shifts and the 2007–2008 financial crisis

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  • Boyarchenko, Nina

Abstract

Faced with doubts about the quality of information and the quality of modeling techniques, ambiguity-averse agents assign higher probabilities to lower utility states, leading to higher CDS premia and lower equity prices. Using data on financial institutions, I find that the sudden increases in credit spreads during the recent crisis can be explained by changes in the amount of ambiguity faced by market participants and changes in how the total amount of ambiguity was distributed between ambiguity about information quality and ambiguity about model quality.

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  • Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Ambiguity shifts and the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 493-507.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:59:y:2012:i:5:p:493-507
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.04.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilde, Christian & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Ockenfels, Peter, 2014. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion: A Systematic Experimental Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100557, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2015. "Modeling Credit Contagion via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 1960-2008.
    3. Chang-Chih Chen & Chia-Chien Chang, 2019. "How Big are the Ambiguity-Based Premiums on Mortgage Insurances?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 133-157, January.
    4. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2018. "Doubts and variability: A robust perspective on exotic consumption series," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 689-712.
    5. Dow, Sheila, 2016. "Uncertainty: A diagrammatic treatment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-25.
    6. Liu, Bo & Liu, Yang & Peng, Juan & Yang, Jinqiang, 2017. "Optimal capital structure and credit spread under incomplete information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 596-611.
    7. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    8. Goodman, James, 2014. "Evidence for ecological learning and domain specificity in rational asset pricing and market efficiency," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 27-39.
    9. Tarik Driouchi & Lenos Trigeorgis & Raymond H. Y. So, 2018. "Option implied ambiguity and its information content: Evidence from the subprime crisis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 463-491, March.
    10. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," Papers 1512.06960, arXiv.org.
    11. Nina Boyarchenko & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Stewart Hodges, 2012. "No good deals—no bad models," Staff Reports 589, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2017. "Robustness, Low Risk-Free Rates, and Consumption Volatility in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 80046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Eduardo Corso, 2015. "Ambiguity and portfolio decisions," BCRA Working Paper Series 201567, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    14. Houdou Basse Mama & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2017. "Investor Relations' Quality and Mispricing," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Eric Swanson, 2018. "Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 290-321, April.
    16. Guangyu PEI, 2019. "Uncertainty, Pessimism and Economic Fluctuations," 2019 Meeting Papers 1494, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, 2020. "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 220-237, October.
    18. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
    19. Gehrig, Thomas & Sögner, Leopold & Westerkamp, Arne, 2018. "Making Parametric Portfolio Policies Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 13193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Rossella Agliardi, 2018. "Value-at-risk under ambiguity aversion," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    21. Trojani, Fabio & Wiehenkamp, Christian & Wrampelmeyer, Jan, 2014. "Ambiguity and Reality," Working Papers on Finance 1418, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    22. Saâdaoui, Foued & Naifar, Nader & Aldohaiman, Mohamed S., 2017. "Predictability and co-movement relationships between conventional and Islamic stock market indexes: A multiscale exploration using wavelets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 552-568.
    23. Ban, Mingyuan & Chen, Chang-Chih, 2019. "Ambiguity and capital structure adjustments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 242-270.
    24. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2016. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 230-266, July.

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