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Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany

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  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Merkl, Christian
  • Seth, Stefan
  • Stüber, Heiko
  • Wellschmied, Felix

Abstract

Worker churn is procyclical in the German labor market. We study the plant-level connection of churn and employment growth using the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel from 1975 to 2014. Churn is V-shaped in employment growth. Through analyzing this pattern by worker skill, age, and tenure, we establish that churn is unlikely to result from plant reorganization but rather from uncertainty about match quality. In a dynamic labor demand framework with a time-to-hire friction, churn can be interpreted as a manifestation of idiosyncratically stochastic separation shocks. These shocks become larger and more predictable during booms, leading to procyclical churn.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2021. "Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 781-797.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:117:y:2021:i:c:p:781-797
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.05.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko, 2024. "Wage and employment cyclicalities at the establishment level," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2022. "Monopsony Makes Firms Not Only Small but Also Unproductive: Why East Germany Has Not Converged," IZA Discussion Papers 15293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Liis Roosaar & Urmas Varblane & Jaan Masso, 2020. "Productivity Gains From Labour Churning In Economic Crisis: Do Foreign Firms Gain More?," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 125, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    4. Clark Gordon L., 2022. "Agency, sentiment, and risk and uncertainty: fears of job loss in 8 European countries," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 3-17, May.
    5. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    6. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    7. Lochner, Ben & Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko & Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2019. "A note on recruiting intensity and hiring practices: Cross-sectional and time-series evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2019, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics, revised 2019.
    8. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    9. Garnadt, Niklas & von Rueden, Christina & Thiel, Esther, 2021. "Labour reallocation dynamics in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic and past recessions," Working Papers 08/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    10. Tim Kovalenko, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size," Working Papers 212, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Worker churn; Employment growth; Job flows; Worker flows; Labor demand; Separation shocks; Job-to-job transitions; Aggregate fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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